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Technology Stocks : CMGI What is the latest news on this stock? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Premier who wrote (1128)	8/6/1998 9:23:00 AM
From: Scarecrow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19700

Premier, An investor in venture firms expects 45% annual return for the risks she takes That may be what she expects, but it ain't what she's getting. What VC fund has returned 45% per annum compounded over 10 years? The random walk theory even applies to VC investments, too, IMHO. Further, the best VC funds have a little diversification as well to minimize the inevitable cycles. Expectations of 40-45% every year in one sector -- up market and down market -- are not grounded in history or reality, IMHO. As for your question, "what will the price be?" it is impossible to know. Predicting a profitable rise in a stock price over 5 or 10 years is what investing is all about. However, predicting the specific price 5 or 10 years out is nothing more than parlor-game fun. Too many unknowable variables to have a price horizon longer than 6-18 months (and in the Internet, even that horizon is a little far out). What will be interest rates? Energy prices? Middle East situations? Democratic or Republican pres and Congress? All of the factors that determine a stock price are just not discernible in 2004 and it's crazy to try to even hazard a guess. As the young investor asked the wise investor "What do you think the markets are going to do next year?" The wise investor answered "They will modulate, son. They will modulate."