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To: Broken_Clock who wrote (1570)8/5/1998 9:16:00 PM
From: Thean  Respond to of 14427
 
Papaya, are you sure you know what you are doing?

Worst case is buying varco for 12 5/8 in 3rd week of sept - NO. Worst case is VRC goes to $7 and your cost basis is 12 5/8.

The fundi means zippo for the drillers and OS stocks right now. However, for you to earn that 17% by the third week of Sept, the overall market should not sell off and oil should not drop below $12. Think you have a higher than 50:50 edge? Is this the best investment you can find? Have thick pain tolerance? If yes to these questions, then you should sleep well at least for now. Good luck.



To: Broken_Clock who wrote (1570)8/5/1998 9:32:00 PM
From: SJS  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14427
 
PK,

Covered writes by definition, are great in a stagnant market. You're pretty exposed for your 17%, and for close to 9 weeks. I don't really think the risk is worth the reward here UNLESS you think you'll be called.

I have no appreciation, and I'll admit it, for what's left on the downside on any of these oil drillers any more. I am plain ole numb. GLM selling at 2x book value. Ridiculous. However, if you have a feeling we're at the bottom, and we'll go flat for a while...then you could be onto something. Again, from people who'se opinions I respect here, it might be the wrong play for 9 weeks of duration.

You might pull the trigger on this, but a nasty market could compound an already nasty sector. Buy/Write are not the thing now. Naked call writes might be, or I think long puts are probably the way to go, in other areas.

Regards,