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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: thomas hayden who wrote (3025)	8/5/1998 11:28:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 5482

yes, the stock has weathered a difficult few weeks without going much lower than my line in the sand 14... with so much bad news, stock has done little more than slippage below 14 comparisons to 1996 bottom are simple minded... in 1996 Asia was growing across the board, Korea was only beginning to bring fabs up, China was expanding 10% per year, US interest rates were declining nicely, US dollar had only begun to appreciate, Pentium chips were introducing MMX technology, the profitless sub$k PC were a dream, Europe was starting to get its act together on shedding socialism and its stranglehold on the continent's economies, inflation was a real threat (now a straw dog), world glut oversupply was not even contemplated in DRAMs, CPU, analog chips... WOW, earth to board!!! 1996 was a rest stop on the Great American Highway... this is a detour searching for the Oregon Pass with a deflationary snowstorm as we attempt to cross the Rockies do you really think it is going to gain ground in price with a staggering loss in Q4 and no turnaround in orders??? with a loss in Q4 of uncertain size??? with Asian economies not getting their act in order??? with more closed fabs to come??? with a US economy approaching a possible contraction in GDP next quarter??? with the next round of Asian convulsions just around the corner??? do you really think China is going to hold pat on yuan??? how can company officials keep a straight face and say they have seen the worst with orders picking up, and then say they expect a huge loss in Q4??? isnt that qtr report due out in five and a half months??? I would wait until AMAT earnings and outlook on 1998 is revealed next Tuesday price still has not broken downtrend line, which it touched last week at 15, exactly the limit stated in previous post... if it goes above that downtrend, it will likely produce that U-shaped P&F indicative of nearterm bottoms on Aug15 puts I will have to pull out soon hopefully on a droopy day... the big volatility in techs may open the window for some profit you guys are guessing on a hope and prayer with or without any profit, I wish you luck I would prefer entry in late Oct98 at 12, might happen / Jim Willie