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Strategies & Market Trends : The Stock Market Bubble -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Moominoid who wrote (1043)	8/6/1998 6:08:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3339

Can I choose 6. Under 6,000 Why isn't there a category for Superbears? I smell discrimination. ATG

To: Moominoid who wrote (1043)	8/6/1998 2:12:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 3339

FORTUCAST FINANCIAL TIMER PRECISE TIMING AND PRICE MOVEMENT ANALYSIS BY BARRY ROSEN <Visit our website at www.fortucast.com> UPDATED AUGUST 5 FOR MARKETS OF AUGUST 6, 1998 UPCOMING ECONOMIC REPORTS LAST 8/6 Jobless Claims wk 7/25: -13/304 8/6 Factory Orders May: -1.6% STOCKS and SEPT. S & P WEEKLY CHART TREND: Topping. DAILY CHART TREND: Lower. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Sideways to higher. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 8/6 H; 8/7 L TURN: 8/24-25 L TURN: 10/98 L TRADING STRATEGY: Stand aside. (8/6) The strong close on Wednesday suggests that we will at least be sideways to higher on Thursday with first resistance at 1093.60 and 1099.40. There is one positive cycle analogue and will not fight it as it could push prices up on Thursday. By late Friday or early Monday we are likely to be at 1043.70 or even the 1020.00 region. Cash projections suggest 1034 and 1027.90. Major cycles point lower into late Friday or early Monday and our best chance for a bigger bounce is August 10-13. Depending on where we complete the first downside pattern on Monday, that could mean a minimum bounce toward 1102 or max. 1130 into next week. NOTE: The big question is whether we are just starting major acceleration. If that is the case, the next move down could be 161 points from a bounce that is not likely to take out the 1102 region. With the market starting to telescope, we do not want to underestimate the downside. BIGGER PICTURE: (8/4) Our best guess is that we will reach lower toward 1020 and probably even 909.40 but we have to see how patterns unfold. Given that we do not see any major recovery until November, our focus should be to keep shorting this market. Eventually, we expect that we will find major support S & P 700 and Dow 6000 but we do not yet have a time framework for this unfoldment. DAY TRADER'S PLANNER: Probably sideways to lower activity toward the 1075 or 1071 region will manifest before a new high to 1093 or 1102. Probably an early sale looking for 1071 and then a potential buy looking for 1101-1102. INTRADAY SERVICES now in effect: QUICK-TRADES HOTLINE: updated at 8:20 am and hourly from 9:30 am-1:30 pm CDT. Now contains more commentary at $3.95 PER CALL ($4.95 per minute outside the US). Call 1-800-788-2796 for details. S & P COMMENTARY LINE: Updated with pre-opening comments at 8:20 and at 10:35 am, 12:35 pm, and 2:00 pm; more detailed and priced monthly. OEX NOTES: (8/6) Patterns here suggesting resistance at 536.60, with first support at 509.50 and an eventual target of 475.80. Continue to favor Sept. puts on rallies. SEPT. T-BONDS WEEKLY CHART TREND: Topping into late August. DAILY CHART TREND: Higher. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Sideways. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 8/7 L TURN: 8/24 H TURN: 8/98 H DAY TRADING STRATEGY: Sell 123.20 mit with a 124.02 stop. Exit 122.27 oco market on close Thursday. (8/6) Minor cycles suggest lower action but we could rally toward the 123.20 region and then sell-off toward the 122.27 region. We are inclined to see lower prices into the open of August 7, but it's hard to sell this market with the flight-to-quality syndrome. We are willing to risk a little money for a day-trade. LONGER-TERM: At this point we are inclined to think that bonds will bottom and rally into August 24; however, the potential impeachment of Clinton is casting a shadow over the market and could invert things. If bonds do resume a flight-to-quality rally in August, look for a possible move toward the 125.23 region. DAY-TRADER'S PLANNER: May have a light sale in the 123.20 region looking to hold into the close risking the trade with a 124.02 stop. T-BONDS INTRADAY COMMENTARY LINE NOW AVAILABLE: Updated 8:15 am, 10:40 am, and 12:40 pm. Call 1-800-788-2796 for details. FOREIGN CURRENCY NOTES (8/6) We have a low for the dollar at the open on Thursday and then a possible recovery into late Monday. The dollar made a low into our key turn and may have a minor bounce back into early Thursday. We are inclined to think that the dollar has a good chance of collapsing, but will flight to quality move toward bonds and the dollar both? Still, we would not be surprised to see a fall on the dollar to the 9300 region this month if Clinton gets hammered later in the month. SEPT. DEUTSCHEMARK DAILY CHART TREND: Lower. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Sideways to lower. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 8/6 L; 8/7 H TURN: 8/24 H TURN: 9/98 L SWING TRADING STRATEGY: Buy 5641 mit with a 5595 stop. (8/6) We still could take another day to reach toward the 5640 region. Longer-term daily charts point toward the 5937 region with a max. upside of 6015. We are inclined to favor longs. LONGER-TERM: (8/2) Given the underlying fundamental support and expectations for a rate hike in the late fall, it's hard to imagine the DM falling toward our old target of 4600, which was suggested by our computer technical model. That target appears likely to manifest into the March 1999 cycle low. The market appears more likely to reach toward the 5950-6015 region into the Sept. cycle high, and thus if you have any Sept. puts, it's clear that they will need covering and new March puts to be bought at the Sept. cycle high. SEPT. JAPANESE YEN DAILY CHART TREND: Lower. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Higher. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 8/6 H; 8/10 L TURN: 8/24 L TURN: 12/98 H TRADING STRATEGY: Stand aside. (8/6) The yen is hard to read here but a minor high is likely due on Thursday with a low into Monday still potentially going toward the 6849 region. We have no reason to be buying this market, but with active overnight action, it's hard to trade. Stand aside for now. SEPT. CANADIAN DOLLAR DAILY CHART TREND: Lower toward 6486. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Lower. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 8/7 L TURN: 8/7 L; 8/13 H TURN: 10/98 L SWING TRADING STRATEGY: Exit longs market on open. Sell 6593 or better with a 6612 stop. Exit 6552. (8/6) The CD continues to get hammered, but if US stocks rise on Thursday, maybe we will get a bounce. Still, we are inclined to expect a break toward the 6552 region by Friday and we should not stick around anymore on this bear. New chart projections are suggesting a move toward the 6486 region. LONGER-TERM: Weekly and monthly charts still point lower into October and the overall trend on the monthly and weekly charts should continue lower. Given no rate hike for at least 3 months, the CD will have tough competition against the DM. DEC. GOLD WEEKLY CHART TREND: Bottoming. DAILY CHART TREND: Lower. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Lower. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 8/10 L TURN: 8/10 L TURN: 8/98 L; 1/99 H SWING TRADING STRATEGY: Cover shorts at 282.50. (8/6 no change) Gold bounced a bit more than we expected but needs to take out the 295.10 region to confirm a low and higher prices. We are still see a good chance of a move toward the 282.30 region, but given the impulsive action on Tuesday, we have to keep close to a break-even stop in place. SEPT. SILVER WEEKLY CHART TREND: Lower to 460. DAILY CHART TREND: Lower. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Volatile: Topping and lower. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 8/10 L TURN: 8/10 L TURN: 8/98 L SWING TRADING STRATEGY: Sell 540 mit with a 553 stop. (8/6) We see nasty downside potential for silver the next few days so we have to get something on early Thursday. First support is still the 534 region and then 526. We are unlikely to take out the 550 region at this point. Downside target is still 498 and eventually the 460 region. SEPT. CRUDE & PRODUCTS DAILY CHART TREND: Lower to 1249. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Sideways to higher. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 8/6 H TURN: 8/14 L TURN: 10/98 H SWING TRADING STRATEGY: Sell 1405 mit with a 1441 stop. Sell breakdowns at 1343 stop with a 1394 stop. Exit 1250. (8/6) Crude went a bit higher than we expected on the Iraqi news, which could pull some more crude off the market. First downside is the 1334 region and then resistance is at the 1430 region if the bullish news continues. We are inclined to continue to sell this market. On deck this week is the release of OPEC data about cut-backs. If they are failing, look out below. Larger patterns point to a fall toward the 1200 region, and that still could happen into August 14. Have a great trading day! Barry Rosen marketweb.com