Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Niman who wrote (24046)	8/6/1998 11:25:00 AM
From: growthvalue	Respond to of 32384

More significant than that is that LLY got approval for "prevention of vertebral fractures" based on 2 year interim data, which lilly says is statistically significant. This means it will more than likely be statistically significant after 3 years, which means it will very likely be approved in the US for TREATMENT of osteoporosis. Also, EU is allowing breast cancer prevention data on the label, which is what LLY is discussing w/ the FDA. Re off-label use: I think oral Targretin would likely see off-label use with or without this ruling - Gemzar, taxol, taxotere, were used off-label without this ruling. BUT, I don't think the market will believe that Targretin will get significant off-label use until the off-label use contributes to significant upside surprises in sales expectations. I.e. once it is on the market. LLY's Gemzar was originally approved for pancreatic cancer, a small indication. The market didn't price in big expectations for Gemzar until the thing was selling like crazy. And the market is certainly more likely to give the benefit of the doubt to Lilly than to Ligand. This doesn't mean I'm not optimistic about Ligand or Targretin, it just means that I don't think we'll see a big move in the price based on the EXPECTATION of off-label use. It's going to take a while. Good news certainly helps in the short term - that's why the stock has traded as high as $18. But BIG news (= news that the company is very likely to market a product that will be a BIG seller) is really the only thing that can create a long-lasting move. That's what I'm waiting for. It's not even worth watching the stock every day. Use opportunities like this to buy some if you want a bigger position. Use your free time for something fun or interesting rather than post about Ligand all day.