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To: goldsnow who wrote (15406)	8/6/1998 8:30:00 AM
From: Bobby Yellin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116764

She wasn't simplistic..she made it sound so easy..I mistook it as simplistic..my stupidity... she must pour through all sorts of economic data..I do think when she makes her calls..and makes it sound easy..a lot of toil is behind the scenes re:corruption..am waking up to see it is all over the place..the Asian's just don't seem as discrete :> re inflation..don't you think global employment market is creating lack of inflation in wage increases? how much does Asia contribute to our economy? (don't think that much)(think a lot to the financial players though who make money coming and going)(looks like grains etc have been harmed) think year2000 is huge wild card..but also good for suppliers of new embedded systems and software consultants. ie in medical field..wonder how many hospitals are justs upgrading their equipment.. .also think some will just set their clocks back to give them further time for remediation... don't think Rubin will resign if Rubin resigned..market meltdown.. long term I think he is the main force in confidence in financial market.. the Clinton mess is just excuse for correction..just guessing..the Europeans must be falling off their chairs laughing at us ... (if I remember correctly Newt walking out on his wife when in hospital with cancer and I forgot if Dole walked out on his wife..Hillary is probably just used to Clinton's flaws..of course just guessing(and don't we all have them) though Clinton made a deal with China not to devalue..at least that was a strong rumour) I wish I had heard what Mark Mobilus(sp) of Templeton group said about SE Asia..he was on tv last night but missed it

To: goldsnow who wrote (15406)	8/8/1998 12:32:00 AM
From: Pete Young	Respond to of 116764

Goldsnow, I think you are right on with the concept of a recession stripping away the patina of contentment of the American worker. The latest issue of the Atlantic discusses the increasingly international racial makeup of the states. (http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/98aug/amfuture.htm) "Being American simply means buying a house with a mortgage and getting ahead -- there is no agreement anymore on culture, only on economics." Seventy-five years ago D. H. Lawrence called America a homeland "of the pocket" and not "of the blood." If this is the case, then it is an open question what will happen during any extended absence of economic opportunity. Will all the various races in, say, LA for example, try to solve the economic problem through traditional politics...or will something like the riots of the early ninties reoccur? (A case can be made for the genesis of those riots totally in economics--cheaper, higher productivity labor driving older labor out of the marketplace.) Another thing is the restructuring of the ninties that hit here...is it really all over? As you say, is Asia being wound up like a spring to come roaring over American industry yet again with a devastatingly lower cost structure? And what about the pending restructurings of Japan and Europe? Will the labor markets be quite so accomodating as they were here? (Throwing fistfulls of money at an already overvalued market and praying to the gods of retirement...) What happens here concerning class warfare in the next recession? Especially if it's accompanied by a significant drop in the market (how could it not), removing the last hope of all those downsized service economy white collar workers of the early 90's that were depending on a ever expanding market to compensate for the loss of cushy retirement benefits and high wages. (A very interesting analysis of global restructuring is at: ms.com especially the last couple of pages.) Will there be a backlash against the deflationary demands of capital, a retrenchment of globalization? (Pat Buchannan's "Country&Western Socialism" waits for the big boys to stumble.) More importantly, fellow contrarians, what would this higher cost structure mean for the dollar...and the price of gold? Pete