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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Dr. Seuss who wrote (12446)8/6/1998 8:16:00 AM
From: Roger A. Babb  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 18691
 
Dr. Seuss, yes my BS detector went off too.



To: Dr. Seuss who wrote (12446)8/6/1998 9:31:00 AM
From: JGarly  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 18691
 
INCL

Glancing at a 30 day chart for SRCM is a good way to put DowJones rumour stories in perspective. Giving credence to buyout rumours at $45 sent SRCM into orbit last month - again the format was "sources close to....".

Personally I think it more likely that the company is trying to get another round of financing done, and using the rumour mill to bolster the price is perceived by management as a means to facilitate this.

IMO it makes an attractive short here. If I am wrong and the buyout is for real, any buyout price would be discounted by the market prior to closing, ie if this was to happen at $6 per share, the market price would be discounted to approximately the current market level in any case.



To: Dr. Seuss who wrote (12446)8/9/1998 3:03:00 AM
From: 1-DAY-TRADER  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 18691
 
Dr.Seuss, Mr.Babb, Hank, Allan F., Poodles and ALL: REf. INCL

I am sorry I have not posted sooner. I have been very busy lately as I had to go out of town for few days, then came back to some personal & business problems. I have been trying to make time to post but I had to catch up on reading the past few days posts on INCL and I am still not caught up yet. But after reading few posts, I have to post a response now. although I hate typing, it might be a little long, but please forgive me for it.

1)I understand your wariness of new posters; but, I am very serious regarding my posting future on SI., so serious I have subscribed for a life time membership. Again, I really do not wish to waste my time on personal BS fights. My time is really precious to me, especially lately. So, please, I urge you all to let us all be strictly professional and concentrate our time on the issues, not personal BS.

2) I believe that we all agree on the fact that the fundamentals of this dog stinks. So, let us concentrate on WHY it is moving up, i.e. the buy-out rumor.

3) Dr. Seuss, with all due respect to you Sir, please do rush to judgement on me yet. I have done my best to generate as much opinions on this stock as possible. I never said it was a sure thing, but I was saying that it looked very nice dog to short. At the time, the DOW JONES article was not published. Had it been published I would have posted it as a upside potential to this short. I have not lied about anything I said about it. Sorry it did not work out for you right away, but on Wed. 10 AM, I heard that it was a done deal at about $6.25. Well, I looked at the price activities, and I saw nothing to confirm such a fake, psyching-out rumor. Especially when the article named a price and timing of the press release, yet the price was still under 5 3/8, I began to suspect the " MOTIVES" behind those so called "Market Sources" who volunteered insider info for the public to make a quick buck. Knowing what my maximum loss would be ( 1/4 - 1/2 pt @ $6 - $6.25 per share) I decided to hold my position because this thing was selling at 4 13/16 the day before, and if this rumor was true the price would not have dropped so low.

Then,a BOMB SHELL had gone off which confirmed my theory on this whole scam:

If you owned 3/4 Million shares, and you knew that each share would be worth $6.25 by Friday at the most, then why would you sell such a huge bulk (3/4 million shares) WITH IN 3 FEW MINUTES in 3 different sales ???

Then I went back to review the entire TIMES & SALES table for that day, and here are the highlights bearing in mind that these sales WERE DONE well few hours after the article was published:

85,000 shares at 5 1/4 @ 9:32:37 AM
85,000 shares at 5 1/8 @ 9:32:43 AM ( on a down tick too)
35,000 shares at 5 3/16 @ 10:54:13 AM
25,000 shares at 5 1/4 @ 10:54:22 AM
22,000 shares at 5 1/4 @ 10:58:29 AM

397,900 shares at 5 1/8 @ 1:45:23 PM
189,000 shares at 5 1/4 @ 1:47:14 PM
189,000 shares at 5 1/4 @ 1:48:44 PM

25,000 shares at 5 3/8 @ 14:15:44 PM

plus, over 150,000 shares in bulks of 10,000 or more were sold through out the whole day at less than 5 1/4 also. WHY?

Adding them up all together, almost 1,000,000 shares were sold in about 10,000 bulk sales at less than 5 1/4, why?
And on Thursday, At 8:16:53 am, the best ask was still 5 1/2 while I thought I would be looking at $6 as a best ask before the open on Thurs. ( I can see pre-trading and after hours activity on my screen)

Then I became even more convinced that it is a PUMP AND DUMP scam, so held on and then on last Friday, I shorted some more just before the close 5 3/8 when I looked at the low # of trades ( not the volume). Someone was still trying to hold it up for a little longer.

Now, here are some questions to consider:

Adding-up the sales all together ( few hours after the article was first published) almost 1,000,000 shares were sold in about 10 bulk sales at less than 5 1/4, why?

1.5 millions share volume on Thursday, half of which were sold in 3 minutes at 1:45, 1:47, 1:48 PM at 5 1/8, WHY? to fake a volume ?

Why not wait for the imminent buy-out release and sell at $6-8 price per share?

WHO IS SELLING? WHY? Is it one of those buy-out hoax while dilution
or MM dumping is occurring? you decide for yourself.

Why didn't the price reach > $6, if the article already named the price at $6 or more? Someone knows better and selling at less than 5 1/4.

Here is another "possible" scenario:

Within the last few weeks, the Mgmt could have diluted and sold enough stocks and generated enough cash to last them for another 2 quarters by which time things could happen and bankers could finance them at a more reasonable terms without holding knives to their necks. There have always been bids by the giants ( at lower prices), but why should this egotistic Mgmt agree now, if they covered enough cash from dumping to keep them afloat.

Again, to recap my questions to consider:

1) WHO IS SELLING ?

2) Why is he selling on Thursday at almost 25% less than than what he was supposed to get in few days? WHY FOREGO ALMOST A MILLOION DOLLARS IN PROFIT BY WAITING FOR JUST ONE or TWO MORE DAY?

3) COULD HE KNOW SOMETHING else which we do not know?

4) WHY DID NOT THE PRICE SHOUT TO AT LEAST THE $6 LEVEL?

5) WHO ARE THE SOURCES BEHIND THE DOW JONES ARTICLE?
market sources?

6) WHY WOULD ANYONE VOLUNTEER SUCH IMPORTANT
INFORMATION THAT COULD MAKE THESE SAME "MARKET
SOURCES" MULTI-MILLIONAIRES OVER-NIGHT? WHAT DO THEY
GAIN FROM THAT ??

WHY DON'T THESE SOURCES RACE FOR THE STOCK NOW, BUY
IT AT 25% LESS THAN THE MARKET THEN JUST WAIT FOR THE
BUY-OUT ANNOUNCEMENT, THEN PROFIT FROM IT AT LEAST A
MILLION DOLLARS IN FEW DAYS.

OBVIOUSLY, BUY-OUT NEWS LEAD TO HIGHER LEVELS WHICH
ALLOW FOR SAFER DUMPING AT THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE PRICE.

This type of selling activity supports my suspicions in this so called
"INDUSTRY WHISPER" or as I call it, "industry scam".

NO ONE PERSON CAN CLAIM TO KNOW ANYTHING FOR A FACT,
BUT WE HAVE BRAINS WITH WHICH WE HAVE TO THINK AND
REASON.

CAN ANYONE CONVINCE ME WITH ANSWERS TO ALL ABOVE
QUESTIONS WITHOUT GETTING INTO PERSONAL ATTACKSn ???

LET US GET TO WORK ON THIS BABY, LETS WATCH AND LEARN.

Finally, Dr. Seuss, I hope you are now convinced that I was not a scam

GOOD LUCK TO ALL