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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (30657)	8/7/1998 4:17:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

To All, Looks like the market may have had a brush with sanity here near the end. 1. My former boss, Pete Anderson, now of American Express (IDS), though he was Chief Investment Officer at The St. Paul when I was making them rich <G>, was on CNBS. He pooh-poohed the rally as a short term deal and called for further deterioration in the months ahead. Way to go, Pete. 2. Fred Hickey was brutal this month. Like a no-good analyst, he dared to bring up former statements from analysts. The geek at Monkey Securities, now Monkey Nationsbank, will definitely pick the bottom of the DRAM market as he does so with regularity. Fred nailed him for calling the bottom in December 1996 (16 Mbit over $10), July 1997 ($5.50), Sept 1997 ($5.25), Jan 1998 ($3), and August 3 ($1.75). This stuff is very funny. Bulls dare to say that tech bears are stopped clocks. It is also very sad. This guy is not an analyst, he's a front man for the industry. Fred also pounds on those who believe that Compaq and Co. have the inventory correction behind them. He points out that, yes, the product in the channel has declined a bit. But sell-through has been awful, especially considering all the incentives to buyers. He reasons, and I totally agree, that 3rd quarter sales were simply moved into the second quarter, and that is not good news for the 3rd quarter. For the chip equipment fans, he notes that shipments are flat year to date, so the huge dropoff in orders has YET to be seen on bottom lines. He notes that when AMAT earned 23 cents in 1996, the stock was at $12. Now they are going to lose money by year end and the stock is at $35. Oh, yeah, investors are rational. <VBG> 3. Kicked butt at the track last night. First time in a while. I have been in a slump. But it all came together last night when I made major bets with my focus horse a 13 to 1 shot. He won and I took a dandy win bet, an exacta, and a trifecta. But not without making me sweat it. There was a Steward's Inquiry, and when I saw the film, I thought my money was gonzo. He looked like he cheated and bumped a couple of horses. Since one was the betting favorite, I figured they would take him down. That has already happened to me three times this season when I had long shots on top. But this time they left him in place. I think they were wrong, but I'm glad they made a mistake my way for a change. <G> MB