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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19169)	8/6/1998 3:16:00 PM
From: SE	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Iqbal, Appreciate your thoughts, opinions, dedication to this thread and the time you put forth. Thought I would offer to you, not necessarily my opinion on the company or its future, but on the stock itself....ASND. I put my mom into this stock in the $33 range. I just took her out at $47.50. WHY? Broken trendline. I don't like the looks of that. Trendline sits at about $50-$51 and we broke it solidly the other day to $45, and have now pulled back and tested it. I think this one could be heading down and based on that simplistic TA....decided to stand aside and see what happens. I decided it was time to step aside and wait....if I am right, Mom wins. If I am wrong, she can get back in and maybe missed a couple of points. Decided to book it for Mom. -Scott

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19169)	8/6/1998 5:36:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

Some misconceptions on dividend yield and high P/E of the market-- throw these outdated yardsticks and look at top line mission statements like 'wealth creation' US companies going forward are wealth creators for shareholders- we will just not part from them-- the market takes no prisoners and punishes the laggards. Look at United Health Care. Bri- I have been talking about 'divergence' in Europe and US stock markets for quite some time I saw an article yesterday in WSJ to the affect of decoupling in my opinion Europe is a buy-- the same kind of fundamentals as we had seen in US back in 1994. I have been talking about beaten down stocks which can take market much higher even if DOW main components fail-- the present rally in Composite from lows of yesterday proves my point this is a normal bull market. Today action only determines one thing that the markets are not suppose to head in one direction and if beaten down stocks start coming up 80 points on SPX is nothing. ''Sensationalisation of Finances'' by media does have 'Lewinski type affect' on the markets but the gurus finally prevail. If the market is up 200 points we take it as norm why should it be otherwise when market is down 300-- all this non-sense of DOW theory was thrown to the garbage can today, this move in composite is one hell of a move and a rotational move the kind of move which I have called the cup winners cup move- as far as market keeps beating stocks like United Health care 15 points in a day and takes no prisoner we are alright. Let me make a strong statement here I see a lot of bears telling me about dividend yields and P/E ratios this crap is from my Grandfather School of Economics. The forgotten Science of 'Actuaries'- who insisted to see a progressive dividend policy-- this market is driven on Wealth Creation concept- have these bears heard of Warren Buffet creation of shareholder wealth creation- this is the driving force of this market. Companies like talk liked this in 1984 they told the shareholders that they believe in volumes, expansion of market share globally, maximization of long-term cash flows and improvement in economic profit and creation of economic value added, this the kind of companies these bears cannot understand. Coke increased its per share earning from 0.20$ to $ 1.67 from 1984 to 1997 an annual compounded growth of 18% nearly, along the way it reduced its dividend payment from 50% to 34% and instituted a share buy back program. On the other hand we see utilities at 8% yield but shareholders wealth creation is Zero. If markets had to be based on low P/E's and high yielding assets such assets are immense in emerging markets and even REITs have got this special payout progressive dividend. These self styled Bear Gurus should better invest in these high yielding low priced low multiples assets the kind of companies they would get would be no better than Gazprom not Cokes or MSFTS or INTC or CSCO. Look at contrasting management attitude of a typical British Company and compare it with the stated objectives of Coke back in 1984: 'It is the Directors intention to pay an interim dividend in respect of each financial year in April and October respectively, with 1'3rd of total annual dividend payment apportioned to the interim dividend and 2/3rd to the final dividend. The Directors intend to pursue a progressive dividend policy taking into account the earnings, cash flow and prospects of the business." The markets today are driven by the kind of mission statements we see in case of Coke- -the shareholders wealth creation-- some one who has not bought CSCO at 11 cannot enjoy CSCO at 100-- any short selling is nothing but a last gasp of old school to stamp authority on new Warren Buffet type of investing-- today the slogan should be--- 1-Look at growth of top line Revenue 2-Look at the share buy backs A company with an equity of 10 million $'s that pays no dividend driven by 25% growth rate will see its value of investment climb to 405 million $. A company that pays all the earnings out will see the value of equity stagnant since there is no EPS growth and any dividend payout will be taxed--the total value of such an investment would be 72 million $. The compound annual growth rate for the first and second company is 25% falling to 5.2% for the second-- It is important to understand this dividend yield problem and P/E problem-- the issue is if fundamentals remain strong we will see that these fluctuations like we saw yesterday a normal part of markets-- when Abby issues her buy it is based on Wealth creation and not Con Edison high yield stagnant stock- with this in mind keep skinning the bears-- and what a nice thing to do on dips like this-- it was one fund that moved the market 128 points yesterday- and as I predicted rumor based sell off has no legs to sell further. Ralph Accompora and Kurlack were seeing putting in orders to buy for their clients. We have fearlessly maintained order when every one starts looking at things which have no relationship to this market. It is not about if market is down to say we are going down it is about to come out and say Why it is going down-- the charts are slaves of movements and don't ever become a slave of charts. since last seven days average time spent on chart will be less than 15 minutes it is always about if this what and why. If my fundamentals are intact we will be friend of the trend but enjoy these gifts on platters. I am happy extremely happy that we were right on the day talking bullish and looking at upside when Ralph Accompaora came up with his nonsense. Any way tomorrow is another day-- lets see if 1102 is taken out comprehensively- I would incline to think that todays closing will have a good reaction on global stocks with Europe benefiting the most.