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To: Thomas M. who wrote (1296)	8/6/1998 12:42:00 PM
From: capitalistbeatnik	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17683

Give me the name of one TA who has beat the market over a ten year period. Just one study that shows TA can beat the market. Just one. The State Dept. had no idea that Saddam would invade Kuwait, how is Ralphie going to know? I see from your bio that you are 27. This means that at best you had a few lucky years (you still haven't told me how and to verify this would require something impossible--examining your statements over your investment history). At your age, you simply cannot take your investment experience, mostly during a raging bull markets and make any firm conclusions about the value of TA. I'll make you a deal. I will read any book you want on TA if you read Prof. Malkiel's book. Since you went to Duke I will assume you are bright and intellectually honest. Then I want you to confirm that you still believe in market timing after looking at the evidence. Also, I would like you to make for the record, a prediction on the next 500 point move in the market, then do it again at that point, then repeat ten times. If TA is reliable, this should be no problem. I bet you get it right between 4 and 6 times out of 10.