To: GREG FINLEY who wrote (289 ) 8/7/1998 12:14:00 AM From: Marc Kahn Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 534
Hi Greg, While I am wildly enthusiastic about Bioject's long term prospects as a company, I'm afraid that I have a dismal view of the short term prospects for the price of our shares. Simply put, there is too much supply being distributed to allow any substantial run up in price. Any time buying comes in with any volume, the sellers pick up the supply. I believe that this is being done by those holders who received warrants on private placements, converted the warrants, and are now taking profits. According to the 10K, as of 3/31/98, there were 9,263,567 warrants outstanding. Since then, at least 2,300,000 warrants have been exercised, leaving approximately 6,900,000 warrants out. None of the warrants which have been exercised were close to expiring. I can't imagine why anyone would convert a warrant without plans to sell the shares in short order. I believe that this is what's happening. Current shareholders are paying the price for Bioject's historical weakness, which led to serious concessions in order to raise operating capital. We are paying dearly for this! As if that's not bad enough, I don't anticipate much good news in the 99Q1 financial report, due next week, as you have pointed out. Bioject has backed off from trying to cultivate new markets (except military) or to service established markets for direct sales of the Biojector 2000 system. I believe that revenue from product sales will show the effects of that strategy, as it did in 98Q4. The success that we have had in military sales and the new alliance with Merck will not be realized as revenue until the current quarter ending 9/30/98 (99Q2). So, my response to this situation is to get some cash ready to buy BJCT, if and when these sellers drive it down even lower. I have been selling some of my positions in other equities, building up funds for this. Sorry to rain on your parade!. Please don't think that I'm being negative here. Bioject is a SCREAMING buy at current levels! However, I think that it will be screaming even louder, real soon. I am learning that sometimes the balance of supply and demand in a stock has very little to do with intrinsic value. Regards, Marc Kahn