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To: djane who wrote (51746)	8/6/1998 5:41:00 PM
From: djane	Respond to of 61433

North American Access Equipment Sales to Double by 2001, Market to Top $4 Billion; New Study Shows Narrowband Access Continuing to Drive the Loop Access Market, xDSL Mass Deployment to Begin in 2000 Business Wire - August 03, 1998 08:25 SAN FRANCISCO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 3, 1998--Shipments of telephone network access equipment will soar from 1997 market sales of $2 billion to $4.2 billion in 2001, according to a new report issued by ryan hankin kent, inc. The report, "Loop Access Systems: Technology and Markets," predicts that growth in demand for access equipment will initially be driven by deployments of narrowband systems, with mass deployment of broadband xDSL systems beginning in 2000. The report identifies xDSL, particularly ADSL, as the industry's next-generation technology for data and Internet access. Driven by explosive growth of Internet access subscribers and competitive deployment of cable modems, ADSL has progressed through trials in 1997 with xDSL deployment projected to reach 49,000 lines by the end of 1998. The UAWG (Universal ADSL Working Group) initiative to develop a splitterless ADSL specification will slow ADSL deployment in 1998 but accelerate it in 1999 and beyond. According to Claude Romans, senior analyst, "Because xDSL can provide a delivery platform for high-speed data, as well as future video services, we expect deployment to pick up significantly as more products become available in the market and standards are finally stable." In the "bottom's up" approach that forms the basis of the forecast RHK analysts evaluated each carrier's system architecture and rate of deployment for loop access systems. RHK forecasts that the total access systems market will grow at a 16 percent annual rate. Most of this expansion will be generated by increasing demand for narrowband access technologies due to continued new subscriber growth, second line growth, and deployments of new services. The report documents a varied pattern of growth among the access systems deployed by ILECs. "Because of cost of field-performance issues of current systems, ILEC deployment of broadband/fiber-to-the-curb activity is winding down or has completely stopped with fiber-to-the-curb systems being deployed as narrowband only, broadband ready systems," observed Steve Korzyniowski, senior analyst. He added, "Trial activity has shifted to non-fiber broadband alternatives, such as xDSL." ryan hankin kent, inc. is a market research firm that specializes in analysis of advanced communications technologies and services that affect the PSTN, cable TV and external data/IP networks. The company has achieved a reputation for detail and accuracy in the telecommunications industry. The "Loop Access Systems: Technology and Markets" report is one of the volumes comprising RHK's STAR (Systems for Telecommunications: Analysis and Research) continuous information service; a forecast of markets and technologies affecting the future of telecommunications in North America's public networks. RHK is based in South San Francisco, California. For more information, visit the company's website at: HYPERLINK rhk.com or contact Mike Mahan at 650/737-9600, fax 650/737-9766. Note to Editors: A graphic reflecting access market trends is available for publication. Please contact Catherine Cook, email: catherine_cook@rhk.com, voice: (+1) 650/737-9600. CONTACT: ryan hankin kent, inc. Mike Mahan / Jim Kent, 650/737-9600