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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: VLAD who wrote (27236)	8/6/1998 5:13:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Dazed & Confused.....???????????????????? I'm going to have a few drinks tonight... This morning I see what what looks like another 2-3% sell off starting; bad earnings news on a couple big OILS - like Royal Dutch and I'm seeing a big, dark cloud forming right over my head... I was thinking here we go again another 5-7% coming off painlessly over the next 3-4 days; so then I check my core holds and I see one of my ''fav's'' that I view as ''the'' finest small cap stock, bar-none; in the oil patch -OMNI; selling off quick - right off the open and off all most 20% at its intra-day low. I see what looks to be another BIG morning sell off; so I sell off all but my best of the best (into the morning sell off - mind you) . But then what happens ! Noooooo; it can't F#%(@*$ be... I see what I've been waiting for - a 4-5% rebound by days end....? Go figure... Nice to see some 2 million share volume on OSX big caps like SLB, BHI, HAL, & NE, BJS, ESV -- good clue here to who the institutions like when the tide does turn. They we're buying today - finally. BUT, big oils were not strong - so just a few funds buying quick - will this last ? - not in my opinion, unfortunately. BJS, CAM, RON,HAL have 90% - 95% institutional ownership for example and were up strong today - FGII has just 36.25% institutional ownership & depends on individual investors to a greater degree - so we see what strong institutional support can do with its terribly swift, double-edged sword.... I think that OMNI ( only 13% institutional ownership) who has rebounded very strong off each major sell off prior to today. Had a major seller dumping continually. I set a low ball limit buy and it got filled @ 10 1/8. OMNI is a great short term trade (and a great long term hold) and I filled up today @ 10 1/8 after seeing their rebound after every prior selloff... I am looking for some more short term plays off these over-sold 1 day moves in individual stocks like BDI recently and OMNI today. I just am seeing things I don't like here... I am not sold on today being anything other than a head fake - but just the time I think that way - it will be rally time... or maybe the institutions will just hit & run on us. Buying on dips - then letting the shorts run us off...then buying on dips and so on... no continual steady buying - which is what I am waiting to see before I'm comfortable again. We need a week of 1-2% gains daily to see if we are truly basing. If we follow suite - Monday we're probably in for a 5% sell off ??? - no predicting any more. Take advantage of short term individual trades - sell at quick profits; keeping some shares, adding continually for long term positions, but raising cash and staying agile and lean.... VLAD's news on CDG was very interesting - I can't believe analysts who should have this info - are pricing CDG at what -5 times trailing earnings ? What really got my attention was 2 major analysts on CNBC today Fadel Gheit and Charles Maxwell of N.Y. - who both stressed that Asian demand weakness was not only playing a bigger factor in crude than the OPEC cuts - but that we also could see a slow, long recovery...they weren't real strong on a quick 1999 rebound - but yet today on this very tempering news ( which got my damn attention real quick) - as this was as from oil- specialists ''bulls'' who really painted a gloomier picture than they previously had ( a page from the Acampora - playbook ?) -- so then what happens !!! -- we have one of our best days -- up 4-5 % ? ---kind of makes you think these guys might be setting up the institutional buyers. All this time they've been yelling - buy - we buy and the institutions and short sellers cut our legs out from under us by simultaneously selling; then today they signal - sell; - it's much worse than we thought ! - and the institutions were finally buying the hell out of these stocks ---- LESSON HERE FOLKS ? ....Khalid Khan ...your comments on DLJ & EVI were ringing in my ears on this today. I'm putting this lesson into my trading notebook -- filing it under; (misc. conspiracy theories.) watch & do what they do and not what they say they are doing... Hopefully I'll do better on OMNI's pop tomorrow & over a few days than what I lost by trimming out some stocks this a.m. Made a nice play on BDI - keeping some long term and hope to do the same with OMNI; nice, quick profit - sell off and keep a little for long term. Hopefully accumulating a little cash to build for a strong entry accross the board when the tide does turn. But, for now - I only like trading or buying individual stocks on disproportionate 1 day sellofs like BDI & OMNI... I am simply and quite honestly confused... way too many mixed signals. This is now an individual company/stock market IMHO. One can not draw any sector or even sub-sector wide conclusions. We can have 2 seismic companies sell off big and 3 go up - off no news... FGII can sell off and JRM can go up.... CDG down & MDCO up, DO up & NE down; PTEN up & BDI down... I like these big one day dips for trading down on ones cost basis and raising some cash off the profits - cash is good here and I'm holding just a few core holds, maybe 4-6 stocks. Guys; lets be carefull out there...