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To: edward miller who wrote (49474)	8/6/1998 6:47:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

INDEX UPDATE --------------------- Today was actually a good day for the market, but I am not saying that the downtrend is over. The market would have to improve alot more to say that we are back in a long-term uptrend, so it is still too early to make that call. However, for the short-term (within a week) this bounce should continue some more before seeing tough resistance. Here are the improvements: 1) RUSSEL 2000 up nicely(almost 8) which implys that money is flowing into other areas besides the nifty-fifty and that this short-term upswing is more broadbased than those in the past. 2) The ADVANCE/DECLINE for both the NAZ and NYSE were positive 3) The UP/DOWN VOLUME improved nicely 4) The NEW LOWs dropped a nicely to around 300 from over 500 of previous days. Many will just say that the NEW HIGHS is still low, that is correct; however one must understand that since the market is still about 800 points below the DOW's highs, it will take a while for that number to improve. The NEW LOWs will improve first, and a 200 point drop in the NEW LOWs should not be discounted, in light of the NEW HIGHs still being low. 5) The overall market was up on strong volume which is bullish. Even in light of today's improvements, it is still too early to convincingly say that the downtrend is over, but I do feel comfortable to say that today's improvements should be enough to support the short-term upswing(1-7 days) which started yesterday. Here are the follow resistance lines for the DOW: 8684 - MEDIUM STRENGTH 8750 - MEDIUM STRENGTH 8850 - VERY STRONG 8890 - STRONG 9040 - VERY STRONG For now I feel the more probable upside target for this specific short-term upswing is the 8750-8850 range. As for timing, my analysis is showing the the top of this short-term upswing should arrive next TUE/WED, and then we should return to the downside. Please keep in mind that we may have a flat or slightly down day within this short-term upswing and it could happen tomorrow. If tomorrow is down slightly, that should still NOT negate this short-term UPSWING. Of course if it dips significantly to below todays lows of 8486, then that would put an end to this short-term upswing. I still feel, for now, that the we will produce lower lows in the longer-term, but it may not happen right away. The next downswing which should start in the middle of next week, may not be the one to go lower but possibly only a retest of recent lows. Nevertheless, the forthcoming down-cycle is still playable, but dont expect the huge drop, if it happens, to occur then. Please keep in mind that I am short-term and attempting to go after every ripple, so please do not confuse my comments on the short-term with my longer-term views. Watch the market instead of getting caught up in all the BULL & BEAR talk. Seeya