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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (6485)	8/6/1998 5:30:00 PM
From: Wally Mastroly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Fed update links: >Fed's Parry hails huge U.S. productivity edge< biz.yahoo.com >no signs of U.S. 1999 recession< biz.yahoo.com

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (6485)	8/8/1998 4:10:00 AM
From: wooden ships	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

In re: "More bad news from the southeast Asian front...Indonesia in danger of collapse..." biz.yahoo.com Thanks, Wally, for the above link. I am collecting a nickel for each analyst discounting the Asian economic calamity, and, thus far, I have amassed a fair sum. Her Ladyship, Joe Battipaglia of Gruntal, our own Bob Brinker, and a number of others have gone on record in dismissing the effects of the ongoing and breathtaking contraction of wealth in the Far East upon the US markets. Indeed, Brinker, with compelling logic, has argued that the Asian debacle has, in specific ways, contributed to the vitality of the bull. Has the worst of the Asian collapse already transpired; have the markets in the US fully discounted any future unpleasantness in the Eastern realms? Seemingly, these would be legitimate ques- tions for investors. In any case, if memory serves, Henry Kissinger, speaking on CNBC-TV more than a few months ago, warned of the possibility of Indonesia being swept into the vortex of an economic decline both irresistible and irreversible. To recall it, Mr. Kissinger, at that time, expressed deep forebodings that an Indonesian debacle might spill over with much ill effect into the greater Asian theatre. Now, according to the 6 August Reuters story, Indonesia faces social and economic collapse unless the government acts... a group of prominent local economists warned on Thursday. "If there is no prompt action, the situation will move towards a total destruction of the Indonesian economy, bringing along the collapse of the social and political life of the people and even the existence of Indonesia," the 15 economists said... They said the Indonesian economy faced its worst crisis in 32 years, with the economy expected to contract more than 15 percent in 1998, inflation likely to hit 100 percent, and the number of people living under the poverty line soaring to at least 80 million from 22.5 million in 1996. Many of the economists were from the country's most prominent universities, the University of Indonesia in Jakarta and Gajah Mada University in Yogyakarta. Their declaration said that economic policy under President B.J. Habibie, who succeeded Suharto in May, was no better than under the old administration, adding that the government's lack of legitimacy was impeding economic recovery.... Thousands of ethnic Chinese, who control a significant share of Indonesia's economy, have fled the country since they were targeted in widespread unrest in May. Many took their capital with them. The industrious Chinese, a distinct minority in Indonesia, have apparently been scapegoated by their poorer com- patriots and fled all hallow, as reported. Ironically, the native Indonesians may have thereby greatly exacerbated their plight and extended their time horizon for any reasonable recovery in this wise since the Chinese reputedly are, or have been, the linchpin of Indonesia's economy