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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stock bull who wrote (56801)	8/6/1998 5:57:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Stock Bull, the problem with the inventory in a manufacturer like Compaq is that first, raw materials are bought in bulk and inventoried. Frequently companies will order large amounts of inventory and then accept delivery as scheduled releases. They may not counting inventory that has been purchased but not delivered as part of inventory. A second problem is that their sales are into a channel. Remember the results of channel stuffing for the past few quarters? If Compaq is not counting channel inventory as part of its own that could be a potential problem, depending on the arrangements they make with resellers. The problem with ASP and analysts is that not a single one that I've seen has discussed pricing in the light of profit maximization and elasticity of demand. The problem goes further than that. Many of these people use heuristics as a substitute for thought. How often have you heard them invoke DSOs to suggest back end loading and support these claims up with meaningful data? These so-called analysts fall into two camps for the most part: free media for the businesses they cover, and catalysts for churning on behalf of the brokerages they work for. Very few are independent. An example of an independent source is Value Line. TTFN, CTC

To: stock bull who wrote (56801)	8/6/1998 6:05:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Stock Bull- I have great difficulty thinking that CPQ is down to 2 weeks now, given the CPQ's management has been quoted as saying 3-4 weeks (just 2 weeks ago). After observing their management this year, I feel pretty certain that if they were anywhere close to 2 weeks, we would have heard it from them first...After all, this would be a major triumph, no? (As you know, there are other groups that are sceptical about CPQ's claims, and put inventory levels between 4-6 weeks, but that's another issue) I doubt seriously CNBC has "scooped" anyone on CNBC's inventory issue. Their technology reporting is comparitively weak compared to other sources (CNET, others)... As to the analysts....My point is this: Their is way to much emphasis placed on ASP, among other things....when the emphasis should be placed on efficiency of operations, inventory levels, etc....ASP's having been falling for most of last few years....Dell has performed outstanding during that time....Where is the relationship between falling ASP's and the performance of Dell (or its stock)...I have seen countless analysts (both in print and on CNBC) list falling ASP's as a reason for a decline or poor state in the PC industry and/or Dell (and, subsequently, a lack of profitability, and lower stock prices)...Dell has proven that the industry's problems are not ASP declines, rather how one manages inventory, the market segments one goes after, and the assembly/distribution model one chooses.... Also, I have seen many analysts (in print and on TV) really underestimate the size of Dell advantage (due to J-I-T, B-T-O)...If you continue to monitor this thread for few months, you will understand how great this advantage is.........and why the current "announced" efforts of Dell's competitors will fall short.... Overall, some analysts get this, some don't....I am not questioning their number crunching ability (I'm positive they are good at that!). It is the bigger picture that some are missing........ Understanding Dell (and its continued dominance) takes some vision... Gotta run. Hope this clarified (a little) my comments.