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To: bobby beara who wrote (14171)	8/6/1998 8:51:00 PM
From: Chris	Respond to of 42787

some family issues came up, so I can't post tonight. I have to get going.

To: bobby beara who wrote (14171)	8/6/1998 9:01:00 PM
From: Chris	Respond to of 42787

my tgt price for this rally (let's use the dow) will be the 50 day ema at roughly 8800-8900. have to go now.

To: bobby beara who wrote (14171)	8/6/1998 11:32:00 PM
From: nycnpbbkr	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42787

bobby what's the market going to do tomorrow?

To: bobby beara who wrote (14171)	8/7/1998 10:46:00 AM
From: Tom Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Hi bb--did not get a chance to log on until this morning >>Balderdash! Sheesh--I guess that I should have stayed in hibernation:) >>When you use technical analysis, fundamental analysis etc. you are making decisions about future events - you ARE letting the market guide you as to the probability of Dell hitting 120 in two weeks.<< I guess this is a difference in semantics more than anything else. When I take a position based on fundamentals, it is primarily for investment purposes. When I trade, it is the technicals that I review. I take positions then based on what the technicals are suggesting in terms of possible direction -- but to say that I am able to "see" the future is a bit of a stretch. For one thing, to use the example of DELL, if I take a long position, I have no idea whether the 120 level is going to be reached or not--I take the long position on the basis that it is technically looking "right" for a long position. I guess what I am saying is that I, for one, cannot predict prices with any degree of accuracy, into the future--weeks or months ahead. In fact, I can't predict prices accurately hours ahead. My experience has been that there is no one who can do these sort of predictions with any accuracy -- and consistency---including market gurus. Some have hot streaks -- and then they fade away. For example, several people have been citing Eliades view re the market being at a major top -- and he cited examples of why the past has been a prelude to the future in this respect. It all sounds great -- except that Eliades has been projecting a major top since DOW 4000. I do have a healthy respect for cycles---though I rely on others to guide me since I don't have the expertise to do it myself. In 1994, though we had a down-turn, the market averages did not decline significantly--though certain individual stocks and sectors did do so. The same thing has already happened this year. Several of the years that you cited were years with significant bottoms--now are you sure that the bottom cannot be seen this year without a Kahuna--are you sure that we have not already seen the bottom, especially given that the economy seems to be humming along? >>of course if you are of the new era persuasion the business cycle has been repealed. : -)<< On this we agree -- I am not a new era proponent. As far as the business cycle is concerned -- there are down-turns and down-turns and the cycle sometimes lasts longer than at other times. >>2) Downward revisions in GDP and earnings momentum. Earnings momentum peaked two years ago. << GDP has been revised downwards and earnings momentum has slowed -- but both are growing at a healthy clip. >>3) 25% of the world economy in recession/depression and the list is growing.<< Yes you are right--but even the much vaunted Asian crisis has impacted GDP growth by about 3/4% as I understand it. Now let us consider the other side of the coin: Inflation is almost non-existent Interest rates are at record low levels Real interest rates are at levels that could support further easing by the Fed. The US is consider a safe haven for funds that are fleeing economies that are unstable or vulnerable. The Asian crisis has helped to keep prices down Productivity has shown improvement Record inflow of funds are likely to continue into the market because of retirement monies. Did not the same Alan Greenspan who assailed us about irrational exuberance 2000 points ago-- say, a few weeks ago, that this was the best economy that he had seen in 50 years?? There are probably other things that I could list--if I thought hard enough about it. >>Dow Theory is a tried and true method and would have warned many to start pairing back when the transports failed their uptrend line in Mid July. In this 'new era' people don't consider Dow Theory relevant anymore, kind of like dividends. << The Dow theory for me is one more tool that is worth looking at --- like moving averages, sentiment indicators, cycles and so on. Like I said in my previous post -- it would be interesting to see how often the Dow theory signal has been correct in calling the direction of the market--say over the past 50 years. I don't know that answer to this. >>Everything returns to the mean. I do agree with you re this -- just a question of how far from the mean it gets before it returns to the mean. Ironically, at some levels, I don't disagree with you regarding the vulnerability of the market--after all that is why I am substantially in cash--and have been for almost a year now. My disagreement with you is in terms of the imminent decline of gargantuan proportions that you seem to be suggesting -- I guess that I don't see it that way. I exited the market because I felt that it was over-valued--since then it has become more over-valued:) I shall re-enter the market when prices decline to more reasonable levels--from an investment stand-point. In the meantime, I shall continue to trade the markets from both the long and short side--probably through the futures markets. It was around April of last year that we were engaged in similar exchanges on the Kahuna thread. At that time you were just as vehement as you are now, and foresaw the Kahuna as imminent -- the market went on to substantially higher levels. I state this not to demonstrate that you were wrong then-- but because it merely confirms my point that it is difficult to predict such things accurately or consistently. I think that there is a danger in getting wedded to a view whether regarding the markets or individual stocks. The worst mistakes that I have made have been when this happened. Through much of last year, I took the position that DELL was over-valued and this year that the internet stocks were in a bubble--in both instances, the stocks have more than doubled. The only thing that I did right is in not shorting them. But I have more often than once, wondered as to whether it was not a case of my emotions and bias getting the better of me--in refusing to take a position in these stocks. Anyway, thanks for your response--I shall go back into hibernation now for another couple of weeks or so:)