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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stitch who wrote (5407)	8/7/1998 12:12:00 PM
From: William Epstein	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7841

Stitch; I have no opinion yet on this rally or its peak. I will chart it over the weekend and post it to you. Typically, specialist led rallies last from 2 weeks to 8 weeks, 6 weeks being the average. If it lasts longer it is an investor led rally. At the end of a specialist rally is always marked by a sharp spike or two spikes up set a few days apart combined with unusual volume. I call this the horns of the bull because that is what they look like on a chart. These upticks mark the point where they go short and are about to drop the price like a stone, trapping people like us and forcing the margin accounts to sell out. Yesterday had unusual volume but is this the beginning or the end of a rally? I think it is the beginning. If look at charts dated back to February 97 you will see the spike to 56 and then again in April and May to 54 1/2. In August of 97 another sharp uptick after the stock had dropped and down again almost 90 degrees. The triple spike is February, April and May was a massive shorting pattern being developed and a smaller but similar pattern in August. If you recall, there was no explanation, at that time, for these upticks. I love to post these messages about specialists because I get wonderful replies from the believers and nay sayers. They always stir up a lot emotion. They want to believe that specialists are merely public servants. That is not what they are in business for. I will recall a true story. The gangster, Lucky Lucianno was once taken on a tour of the NYSE and shown all of its operations. After a day of viewing it he said, " If I had known about this when I started I would have never gone into the rackets.". William Epstein