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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (6505)	8/6/1998 9:38:00 PM
From: spiny norman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

JWCB, SEMIS and DEFLATION >> end of round 3 in a 15 round affair The Nikkei peaked in the early '90s, where have you been? As far as the Asian Tigers currency crisis, we are over a year in, Numerous bourses are down 60-80%. IMHO, we are nearer to the end than the start. >> This is DEFLATION hitting our shores Assuming that the big D washes across the Pacific, I submit that the semi-biz is the one industry is ready for deflation. By every conceivable measure (price per bit, MIPS, mHz, bandwidth whatever) semi/computer/disk prices decline and have been persistently declining in real terms for decades. Worried about liquidity traps? If you've ever upgraded a computer, you know that by waiting you can always get one that it cheaper and faster. The whole decision about when to upgrade a computer is one giant liquidity trap. A little deflation isn't going to change this. IMHO, the deflating prices of computers, disks, etc brought about by Moore's law is a far greater force than the deflation currently being "exported" from Asia. Yes, at the margin there is some effect and you are correct here, but the deflationary effects caused by a lot of formerly command economies going capitalist aren't going to be the end of the world. regards

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (6505)	8/6/1998 10:28:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Jim and all, may be we should think about a few future events and how it will influence the market. (estimated time in CAPS) 1. Yen is an eyelash away from 145 again. Worry sign out, when will panic button be depressed? WITHIN 3 MONTHS. 2. HK$ has been under attack since last week. HS index close to 7000 again after recovering to over 8000. Will the peg hold? COULD BE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. 3. China has problems coming out of the yin yang. Natural disaster certainly not helping. Jiang and Zhu reform plans now appear to be more ambitious than ever. 8% target growth is against all odds. Will the RMB fall this year or next? Or will they just quietly print more money? ANY TIME DEPENDS ON 1 AND 2 ABOVE. 4. Japan has no plans. Jesse hit the nail of the head months ago. There are no leaders in Japan astute in economics and powerful enough to lead them to salvation. The economy will spiral down as the yen falls. SEPTEMBER - WHEN BANK AUDITS COMPLETED. 5. Korea is probably bankrupt technically. Next year will be judgement day when short term debt comes due again. SIX MONTHS. 6. The rest of Asia is relatively insignificant individually. In the aggregate, they do add up. Indonesia is hopeless. Others may follow. IMF is out of money to bail them out even if politically and economically feasible. TOMORROW. With all these land mines ahead, I sure like to have the optimism the likes of Joe Bartaglia of Gruntal possesses. Ramsey