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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: George Mc Geary who wrote (19175)	8/6/1998 11:08:00 PM
From: studdog	Respond to of 50167

George, I think this is a very big question on the minds of many on SI. Is this the end of the megacap market and the beginning of a new leg for the beaten down? Exactly one year ago my portfolio of smaller cap tech stocks started tanking and has not looked back. One after another was cut off at the knees (in some cases, at the neck). Today, my entire portfolio was up. Hasn't happened in over a year. Is this a head fake or the real thing? Karl

To: George Mc Geary who wrote (19175)	8/7/1998 3:42:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

In this post I have talked about this 4 trillion lagging equity--I think that it may not be before next three months that we will see fire in these equities which are sitting at very low levels but I think we will see PSE back to 355 SOX 280 and DDX 155 when we see SPUat 1118-- I would think that trading below 1118 should be very careful and I will only initiate new positions until this cap is taken out. A bounce from lows of an oversold sector sometime does turn out to be a dead cat bounce, wait for a trend to develop. I concur with you that last night rally was backed by strong buying of mid caps, the problems with most of this kind of buying is that it has the tendency to bail out and take quick profits-- most of these companies have failed to become ''wealth generators'' for shareholders and this market will not ignore any speculative equity for far too long. In my opinion SEG QNTM WDC have shown promise and may finally deliver but until such time DDX will be vulnerable on top of the range-- SOX is now more seasoned after taking a lot more beating it is said that AMAT INTC and TXN feel very comfortable - although ASEA is down but Europe strong unprecedented growth of PC's wil help WINTELCO, if the judges don't interfere. SOX 300 is a target by Sept but I will first like the trend to establish for me 412 on RUT is as important as 265 on SOX- PSE 355 is a target and next resistance will be 1865 on composite.If 412 is taken out on RUT I would definitely say that we are seeing a broad based rotation which is going to take this market lot higher but still this is way out. To: James Strauss (19089 ) From: IQBAL LATIF Wednesday, Jul 29 1998 5:31PM ETReply # of 19178 Next Previous Respond James Thanks for the post--- I can see your point but in my opinion the fundamentals remain alright-- we have all this confusion and we need to see some long overdue selling in internets, I would think that we are getting average to good earnings the decline in US export is considered a problem or some expect that GDP growth for the first time may be flat or even negative-- I just don't buy the two arguments, GDP is strong and we will see that we will have above 3% growth for the next quarter-- until NAPM comes we may see some softness. I think test of these 1865 area on composite is a normal move after a very strong move up-- I just don't see where on earth the selling is going to come- if IBM'd INTC's and MSFT's or CSCO's are not selling this market is not going any lower than areras I have already identified-- if you remember last time we had that Oct drop we saw most of these stocks dropping to 40's in case of TXN 64 in case of INTC and 70 in case of MSFT now look at their earnings these stocks in a very bearish market in last two days have not even tested their 20 days MA-- we need to see the market cap overall at 10 trillion $-- nearly 4 trillion of it is languishing (RUT and others mid cap) the room downside is limited to 405 at the most, that will be nearly 12% from the highs and it is not very far -- we are left with other 6 trillion -- 2 trillion of it is tech-WINTELCO kind of companies in that SOX is at 250 and not 400 so room there is limited another 10% on SOX and DDX plus 5% IIX and NWX have anomalies within sectors some stocks have good reasons to be up there others like broadcom.com needs some good hair cut, for me I can clearly see market getting its 20% of its two trillion with out much affecting the winners-- a ten percent on DOW cap is already half way achieved-- and I see a trillion in speculative money in stocks which need a severe hair cut-- in all I can see that market will correct but I could see some signs of tired selling yesterday late in the session S&P was behaving kind of differently an anomaly in cash and future gave me some indication but it was kind of very early in the present move--