To: Tim Lumley who wrote (121 ) 8/7/1998 9:02:00 PM From: Don Martini Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 355
Tim, My protection against sharp downturns is the rollout. Four benefits: 1. Larger premium, reducing break-even point 2. Delays day of reckoning, giving time for stock to recover. 3. Opportunity to roll down to lower strike price 4. Potential to repeat rollout again & again Example: Suppose I sold 10 Dell 8/130P on 7/17 for $16. The premium is now 21.00; I'm $5 under water. What to do? Buy the 8/130P back for a 1998 loss, then sell my choice of: 2/99/130P for $31 [$10 gain] 2,000/130P for $38.50 [$17.50 gain] 2001/130P for $44.12 [$23.50 gain] Only 5 2001/130P cover the $21 buyback, and there's still a small gain. Or, roll out and down and fewer: Sell eight 2,001/110P for $28.50. 3 benefits: lower strike, fewer contracts, 28 months time distance. Suppose Dell's troubles are temporary, it climbs to $150 by December: Premium for 2001/110P which I sold for $28.50 will be about half. I can buy those back and sell a closer put for a higher premium, reduce the wait till I'm in the clear: a rollback & up. Of course there are numberless other combinations, Tim. Let's suppose the 8/130s are put to me when Dell is 115 next week. Now I can really get fat: My net cost on the stock is $130 less the original $16, or $114 Then I can sell the 2001/130 straddle for about $79. Net out of pocket is $114-79 = $35. Assume the stock is called in 28 months at $130. Profit is $95, which is about $115% annualized gain: total gain 271%. In the meantime, as the stock went up I close out cheap puts and sell ones with higher premiums to eliminate the $35 cost. My problem is: will Dell go up in 28 months? I'll accept that risk. In the last 28 months Dell went up 3,600% Hope this helps, Tim Don Martini