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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cardcounter who wrote (30702)	8/7/1998 10:33:00 AM
From: cardcounter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

MB: Will China devalue and if so what will be the impact on the US market? Quick rundown of the last coupla dayz.. dollar rises against yen (2 days in a row) now at 145.83 weaker yen puts pressure on the yuan, according to bloomberg, the yuan fell to 9.2 to the $, about 9% less than its official rate and the weakest since China last devalued the currency in 1993...according to black market traders... vietnam devalued the dong (giggle, giggle) to 12,998 to the $ from 11,814. the won, phillipine peso, rupiah, baht, and ringgit also fell... china's worst floodz in 40 years --- more than 2,000 dead (could cut .5% off 3Q growth) Zhu, premier, warned that the growth target of 8% may be out of reach (keep in mind that these are the gov't numbers and there are lotsa warehouses full on non-exported products that are considered growth) things don't look so good for the Hong Kong dollar peg... interest rates are surging to 2 month highs, stock market tumbles again.. I read something yesterday on how the implied interest rates on the HK dollar futures are also shooting up.. the 3 month borrowing rate rose as high as 13% from 10.75% I don't know what the IMF situation is as far as how much money they stil have in the bailout coffers, but Kissinger was railling against it a few dayz ago at the National Gov. Meeting.. I know that the IMF doesn't have alot of funds, and the Republicans seem unwilling to make any more donations... given recent events, do you think china will devalue? will HK break the 15 yr old dollar peg? if so, what will the impact be on the US stock market and the economy? even if the fundamental do not necessitate a devaluation, will panicky speculation make it a self fullfilling prophecy? QUICK update: Looks like all the emerging markets are getting hit hard over currency devaluation. Things are looking grim in Russia... I'll spare you the details, but check the currency, stock market, the 94.52 yield on the 10 month T-bill, as well as the continued debt crunch...