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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (22638)	8/7/1998 11:10:00 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Bill McClean commented, ''The market for electronic equipment is healthy and projected to grow at 9% in 1999, up from an anemic 3% in 1998. Short of unforeseen events like a drastic decline in the yen and other factors, the industry is poised to return to its historical growth path.'' Brian, quote.yahoo.com I don't know what McClean considers drastic but could you suggest one or two reasons why the yen will reverse course and strengthens in the foreseeable future? I posted my recent Asian 2 cents on the blood thread. Message 5434318 The threat of a total collapse is real. We tend to concentrate on trade issues between us and our partners. Let us not forget that within ASEAN, trading has just about ceased to exist as we knew it. Every country in the region see huge decline in imports, that means the previous exporting countries are not making any money. Many believe they can export their way to US and Europe to bail them out of their problems. That has not happened. This flood of cheap products have not materialized. My opinion of comments from the likes of Morgan is that they based their projections too much within the industry while ignoring global economic issues. Within the next 12 months, over 3/4 of the world's population may be living under recessionary conditions, many in full depression and some in total political collapse. If you believe that these events would have no impact on our markets, you should be bullish or vice versa. Place your bets and roll the dice. Ramsey

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (22638)	8/7/1998 1:40:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Respond to of 70976

BK, Thanks for the articles. It appears that there is some light on the horizon but it will be a while before a "new dawn" will be confirmed, IMO. The articles seem to re-inforce the thread perception that mid/late '99 into 2k we will see the semi's rebound. We seem to finally be getting the last downgrades for AMAT which is one of the criteria signalling that we are getting very close to a bottom in the industry. We still need to see further layoffs and more fab closures/mothballing before the bottom is confirmed in earnest, IMO. I am still sticking with my timeline that projects a bottom in Oct/Nov/Dec timeframe for the semi industry and equip mfgs. I expect that it will take another 6-9 months after that before we hear of new fabs being planned or re-opened. Just my opinion, BB