Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Singleton who wrote (23590)	8/7/1998 11:48:00 AM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 94695

The truth is: I don't know either. Here's what I do know. Valuations are at historic levels. Market returns have exceeded the norm significantly for a number of years. If we were simply to revert to the norm -- there would be a considerable distance down to go from here. I think it is very likely given the recent drops that this is simply a bear market rally -- breadth means little to me given the large drop that we have experienced. For someone who isn't sure and has a bullish leaning -- it seems that the prudent course would be to limit exposure to stocks as a percentage of one's portfolio and know how far down you are willing to ride before selling. FWIW.

To: Peter Singleton who wrote (23590)	8/7/1998 12:02:00 PM
From: Philipp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Peter: All of you confident folks out there, all of you folks who know how to read the charts, what are your tea leaves telling you? This is what my tea leaves tell me (actually I am a coffee drinker): The rally we are seeing is the rally the market has been begging for and was almost bound to happen since there is still too much bullishness in the market. I was a heavy buyer of calls on Wednesday and watched them nervously yesterday (pretty safe now). What will happen next? There are the two possibilities you mentioned already. 1. The rally before the crash (breaking the buy-the-dip mentality) 2. The rally starting the next leg up. I think it will be relatively easy to decide which one it will be. If the rally peters out before/around 8900 (Dow), 1120 (SPX) and turns over, it is likely to be 1. Once something like 8400 is broken on a day-end basis, you have a strong crash signal (at this stage the dipsters will have been hurt severely). If it goes beyond 8900, it could rally for a while, though a significant correction may only be delayed by a few months. Timescale? Could be as early as this afternoon or as late as the end of next week. Good trading, Phil P.S.: My guess is that it will be 1., since I am convinced that some of the big players have decided to sell already.

To: Peter Singleton who wrote (23590)	8/7/1998 1:00:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Peter; I guess most of us see about what it is we are looking for as we scan the posts. I do searches at times on some key words to get a feel for where the herd thinks the market is going. SI will let you search the more resent posts for such things like what did I miss on CNBC techstocks.com Your RE no one really knows for sure. when it comes to longer term that's correct, I don't pay much mind to any one who says they do know, as I know it depends on to many variables , Interest Rates, Oil Prices, Dollar value, Political Stability, and most of these are like wild cards in a poker hand, so a calculated guess is the best one can do. BUT Shorter term there are times I get right to the point. Message 5429640 I was already long with my money where my mouth was when I posted that, I hedged a bit to much and set a stop to close and got took out just before that, but had jumped right back in losing a 3/8th ( of could have been ) but still ahead, the set the stop at break even 84-1/2, moved it this morning , and just moved it up again, my stop is now 86, and I'll move it up as the market climbs. Any body who didn't see the stair case climb from 2pm yesterday wasn't looking or don't know how. I also made clear from the start I have an 8900 short term target, but that can sure change, I saw 8200-8000 as the max low befor this rally, and also predicted a small cap run before any real big correction. ------------------- Short term I'm a strategist, who believes liquid is more Fundamental than earnings, and even if that does reverse it will be short lived, and return in short order as long as we have a Market Cap weighted S&P and more Mutual Funds Chasing it than there are stocks. <G> ------------------------ No body but no body knows the future , that it's a sort of Ponzi scam, that's true..will it break down , very likely "someday or year"..but I don't even think the ones who are at the heart of it have any real idea when that day or year will come, It's got Bigger than They are <G> Right now them that didn't go long or cover their shorts can't blame me I shouted loud enough. Some sell programs just hit, the Bears are getting desperate, this should be a wild afternoon, my profit is locked in on this run, so let er roll, I think we make 8900+ anyway before we go back and test for support. It's back to Buy the dips. Jim