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Strategies & Market Trends : The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ivan solotaroff who wrote (20320)	8/9/1998 11:00:00 PM
From: Doug R	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 79250

EDFY: PGDCEB scouting report: Gap date: 4/6/98 Volume: 5,533,800 Gap date low: 10.75 Trading days to first signal: 17...4/30/98 Volume: 230,100...greater than each of the 5 previous days Signal day low: 10.625 Signal day close: 10.875 Entry: 10.875 Indicators for exit: 8 day BB (Fib # closest to 1/2 of trading days to first signal) 8, 3, 5 stochastics (a stoch I mentioned a few K posts ago as good for short term top signals) Stop loss rule (one tick below signal day low) Exit: 14 trading days after the signal day, 5/14/98, price pierces upper BB 15 trading days after the signal day, 5/15/98, 8, 3, 5 stochastics drop under 80 Likely exit price: 13 % gain: 19.54 ******************************************************* Trading days from first to second signal: 22...6/2/98 Volume: 171,200...greater than each of the 4 previous days Signal day low: 9.5 Signal day close: 9.75 Entry: 9.75 Indicators for exit: 13 day BB 8, 3, 5 stochastics Stop loss rule Exit: Stop loss triggered 2 days after entry...6/4/98 Exit price: 9.4375 % loss: 3.2 ****************************************************** Trading days from second to third signal: 2...6/4/98 Volume: 246,500...greater than each of the 19 previous days Signal day low: 8.75 Signal day close: 9 Entry: 9.125 (on the day after the signal) Indicators for exit: 13 day BB (judgement call: since signal #3 appears nearly adjacent to #2, it is likely a double signal. Thus the use of days since signal #1) 8, 3, 5 stochastics Stop loss rule Exit: Stop loss triggered 7 trading days after entry...6/15/98 Exit price: 8.6875 Loss:4.79% **************************************************** Trading days from third to fourth signal: 15...6/25/98 Volume: 388,900...greater than each of the 44 previous days Signal day low: 8.0625 Signal day close: 8.625 Entry: 8.5 Indicators for exit: 21 day BB 8, 3, 5 stochastics Stop loss rule Exit: 4 trading days after the signal day, price pierces the upper BB. 8, 3, 5 stochastics do not confirm exit. Upper BB pierced 5 consecutive days until 7/8/98. 8, 3, 5 stochastics drop under 80 and confirm sell signal 9 trading days after entry. Likely exit price: 10.75 % gain: 26.47% Avg gain on winning signals: 22.1% Avg. loss on failed signals: 4% Avg overall gain/trade: 9.05% Avg. holding time: 8.25 days. Commission costs not included. Conclusion: On-line discount broker recommended for EDFY in which case the system returns significant short term gains. 4 trades of $5,000 each would have returned $1800 in 9 weeks. 8 trades at a regular broker could have reduced this to $1200 or 24%. On-line commissions would reduce it to about $1700 or 34% overall. During this period the S&P 500 gained 4.91% The same $5,000 held in the index would have returned $245.50. This concludes the EDFY PGDCEB scouting report. Doug R