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Strategies & Market Trends : The Rational Analyst -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FJV who wrote (1306)	8/9/1998 1:21:00 PM
From: HeyRainier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1720

[ ADPT: Adaptec ] Hello Franco, I hope you have been doing well since your last visit to the thread. I looked at Adaptec, and I continue to feel that the fundamental prospects for the company are currently unattractive, as are the technical characteristics of the issue. A past post on the issue: From: +Rainier Trinidad Monday, Jun 8 1998 12:58PM ET Reply #1096 of 1307 [ ADPT ] ...The key reservation I have with ADPT is that its troubles are not yet behind the company. With earnings forecasted to be weak for the next three quarters, and the following rate of EPS growth to be in the 6% range for the next 8 quarters (compounded), there isn't much value to be had in this issue to warrant an increase in institutional sponsorship IMO... ...TA-wise, I am looking at this from an intermediate term perspective, and with the price being below some key moving averages and no momentum bottom in sight, it makes me hesitant to consider opening a long position at this current point in time..." The fundamental picture now is still bleak, with the EPS rate of growth being at a negative 7.3% compounded for the next seven quarters. I don't think the company will be out of the woods until the first quarter of the next fiscal year, but it will be very possible that the technical picture will improve before such developments occur, given the anticipatory nature of the market. Technically, the picture is still weak, with the trend being below a number of key moving averages and indicators I follow. The price with Friday's advance currently sits right beneath an intermediate term trend line. Watch for that possible mini-double-bottom as it comes out through the trend line. Short term it could be overbought, but no reversal signal has come yet from the short term indicators I follow. Good luck. Regards, Rainier