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Technology Stocks : JDA Software -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Knight who wrote (154)	8/7/1998 4:41:00 PM
From: Andrew	Respond to of 371

Robert, It is worth noting that when the markets were spiraling down (during the last 4 trading days), DLJ and Morgan Stanley (by the way Morgan was the underwriter of this company) both made positive comments about the company. Morgan Stanley was the company that downgraded the stock to Neutral when it was trading around high 30s. They apparently were the first to see problems that we all know too well by now. Morgan has raised its rating to to Outperform. DLJ never downgraded the stock and reiterated its buy rating. Note that Prudential was the company that lowered earnings and in my opinion was the biggest brokerage factor in the stock's big price slide. However even Pru rates the stock Buy. Pru never downgraded the stock, only lowered the numbers. Let us not be foolish about today's gains. I was bothered by the fact that yesterday, Thursday, Aug. 06, the stock traded almost 900K shares and moved very little. It was disappointing to see the stock close below $15 yesterday. It had been trading above 15 most of the day. Today, the same thing was happening until around 2:00 pm. For a while it seemed that the stock would close below 16. The difference between today and yesterday is the confidence factor. Yesterday there was still a great deal of uncertainty about stock market in general. Today, there was less uncertainty. So it may be too soon to judge whether the bottom has been reached. But, hey my money is where my mouth is. Good Luck.

To: Robert Knight who wrote (154)	8/10/1998 7:34:00 PM
From: Dave Williams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 371

Robert, I know you're bullish on JDAS, but analysts' Buy RATINGS don't drive a stock's price up, it's fund managers' Buy ORDERS that do. MSCO & DLJ's endorsements are nice, but the price drop was due to institutional selling and the price recovery will be due to institutional buying again. Fund managers sell first, ask questions later. JDAS may appear to be a bit oversold, but that will only prove to be true if they actually hit the next 2 quarters EPS expectations (which they could very well do!). Buying below $18 is a fairly solid 2-year plan, but there still is a very real possibility of a lower price in next 6 months (fairly or unfairly). The stock purchase announcement today of 20K shares by JDA executive management should be considered bullish. However, most of the top insiders exercised nearly all their then-vested options to sell at much higher prices (post split $27-$36 range) in the past 6-9 months or so, according to the 10-K. If the recent insider buying quantity was higher (more like 200K shares) I'd be a little more impressed with the insider's confidence. Perhaps not too many of them have any more vested options left to exercise until 1999. I'm surprised that the Company hasn't announced a stock buyback plan.

To: Robert Knight who wrote (154)	9/5/1998 12:36:00 AM
From: Trey Yon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 371

Sword Swallowers Sector Update well gents it's been three weeks since my last post. And we're seeing one NASTY BEAR MARKET. I thought you might appreciate a round-up of how software sector is looking since my first warning flash back on July 31. Stocks I described on 7/31 as having already crashed: CA crashed on 7/22 off 17 points (that day) 7/31 was $33.25 NOW $29.25* this despite a failed rally on analyst upgrades. PSFT gapped down 4 points on 7/22. on 7/31 was $37.69 as of today after a Bullish Conf. call last night closed at $30.94 MANU Crashed from +$60.00 way back on 5/22 (Wow, what a precursor to a debacle) off 27 points that day! 7/31 was $21.75 NOW a veritable steal at $13.75* Technomax (TCNOF) CAD tools was one of the first areas to weaken Crashed on APRIL 8 off 12 points that day! Was $16.88 on 7/31 NOW trades at $10.13 Parametric (PMTC) more CAD software 7/31 was $13.63 NOW $9.75 Here are the stocks I described on 7/31 as ABOUT to CRASH ITWO 7/31 was $24.38 NOW $$14.09 BAANF (still hasn't snapped, but it's rolling over nicely) 7/31 was $39.75 NOW $30.50 HBOC 7/31 was $29.47 NOW $25 (holding up with a lot of institutional buying) MMGR 7/31 WAS $27.63 NOW $17.88 (MMGR was down to $12 but got 2 upgrades to Strong Buy this week) (27 to 12 made my August!) LASTLY, our beloved JDAS after dropping 6 points on 7/31 to close at $17.75 stands tonight at a 52 week low of $11.00 Could you have seen it coming? Well YES, (hindsights always 20/20 <gr>) Go BACK to the chart and take note of May 7 3.8 mill shares changed hands, June 5 2.7 mill shares, lastly 2 million shares on June 29 a SELLING CLIMAX on a peak. THERE IS A VALUABLE LESSON on this chart! JDAS was breaking down months prior to the landslide. But, if you try to run with these big Momentum players like Pilgrim Baxter sometimes you get your head handed to you. Gary & Christine TAKE NO Prisoners! A few general comments: The smaller stocks have gotten hurt worst and probably will continue to suffer. Maybe CA & PSFT are worth a nibble here. As for JDA I'm still on the sidelines waiting for coach to blow the whistle. He's been looking my way. * indicates 52 week low (all prices are daily closing)