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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: joe smith who wrote (37100)	8/7/1998 11:31:00 PM
From: Chas	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 53903

Joe, Obviously now that MU is 34, its a no brainer that I should have sold and took profits, but I really believe we have a much stronger DRAM shortage than one may think at least for now. I have the following Montgomery report that just came out that confirms continuing trends that favor strength in DRAM pricing. Of course Monday MU could go south, but I am willing to wait it out....good trading ------------- DRAM PRICING UPDATE August 7, 1998 SEMICONDUCTORS Jonathan Joseph (415) 627-2925 Claude Hazan (415) 627-2845 DJIA: 8598 S&P 500: 1089 NMSGI: 117 Firming Trend Continues DRAM prices mostly up in the week. We found in our weekly survey that 64Mb 8Mx8 SDRAMs rose another 5% on the week, while high-end 64 Mb PC-100s (100MHz) rose 1% and 16Mb SDRAMs were flat. The less mainstream 16 Mb 4Mx4 EDO rose over 11% on the week. We believe the production holidays out of Korea and recent fab shutdowns in Europe and the U.S. are making PC OEMs increasingly concerned about supply as they continue to see stronger than expected demand in July and early August. As a result, DRAM supplier lead times have stretched from off-the-shelf to six weeks over the last two weeks and spot market prices for virtually add DRAM product have risen. Inventories remain at very low levels, both at the supplier and buyer side, suggesting spot prices could move higher if demand remains strong. Reports of accelerating demand are being supported by industry data, which shows bit growth in June accelerated to 79%, up from 72% in April, according to the SIA. These trends are not only a positive for our PC-oriented device companies, like Micron* (MU, $34-1/4, BUY) and Intel* (INTC, $86-11/16, BUY), but are also probably a harbinger to come in the DSP and analog segments, which include Texas Instruments (TXN, $63-13/16, BUY), Semtech* (SMTC, $16-3/8, BUY) and Micrel* (MCRL, $35-7/8, BUY). RECENT PC-66 DRAM PRICING 16 Mb 64 Mb 4Mx4 EDO 2Mx8 SDRAM 4Mx16 EDO 8Mx8 SDRAM Price % Change Price % Change Price % Change Price % Change 8/7/98 $1.65 +11% $1.78 0% $8.64 0% $9.13 +5% Source: NationsBanc Montgomery Securities LLC, American IC Exchange RECENT PC-100 DRAM PRICING - 64MB 8Mx8 SDRAM 16Mx4 SDRAM Price % Change Price % CHANGE 7/13/98 $9.50 7/17/98 $9.59 1% 7/24/98 $9.59 Flat 7/31/98 $9.59 Flat $9.80 Flat 8/7/98 $9.69 1% $9.80 Flat