To: w2j2 who wrote (13465 ) 8/7/1998 8:13:00 PM From: Maurice Winn Respond to of 152472
"Many in the industry believe Qualcomm is playing tough, seeking to negotiate the best conditions - such as higher patent payments - for its participation. But if Qualcomm fails to budge, analysts say a global standard will be impossible to reach, even though other U.S., Japanese and European players will continue to negotiate. This, analysts say, could delay introduction of the next-generation cellular phone service in Japan, which is slated for fiscal 2000." Impossible to reach? Not at all. The global standard which can be established is the lower bit rate system promulgated by Qualcomm Incorporated and others. The GSM people just incur a bit more cost to overlay their legacy systems. Amazing that people were buying and installing GSM in 1997 when it was clear that cdmaOne was obviously the successful technology, with evolutionary pathways to cdma2000. Now they will incur the cost of their misjudgement. Or obstinacy in some cases. Delay the introduction of next generation systems? This is the scary idea which is being used to try to frighten Qualcomm into submission. Unfortunately for those doing the shroud waving, it is they who are being most held up and financially damaged by failed negotiations and delays. cdma2000 will be well underway and they still won't have a licence to use cdma by Qualcomm. Meanwhile, Qualcomm and their cdmaOne/cdma2000 pals will have enjoyed their time to market advantage. Certainly, the political friends of GSM in Europe and maybe, though unlikely, other countries, will prohibit the heathen cdma2000 and cdmaOne in the interests of the greater good. Bad luck for the populations who suffer the help of their GSM masters. They'll have to watch as the rest of the world surges into the future leaving them with anachronistic, expensive and ineffectual systems unable to use the Web well, unable to travel the world freely and jealous of the wealthy 'west', which will of course include the 'east'. Eventually, when L M Ericsson does capitulate and seeks a cdma2000 licence, they will suffer a debilitating time to market disadvantage. They should be aware of the possible damage having warned Qualcomm for years about how cdma was suffering a fatal time to market disadvantage. Maybe they think because Qualcomm overcame the problems time to market won't affect L M Ericsson either. Certainly it would be better for Qualcomm if cdma2000 was accepted now rather than later, but with L M Ericsson, Nokia and others obviously going flat out on it, even without licences, the delays seem unlikely to be significant. If anything, it is a little early to introduce cdma2000 anyway, since cdmaOne markets are still in the early days. Let it stew a year or two. By then the Web will be more popular, there will be more subscribers, networks will be more developed, wireless device technologies such as DSPs, screens, GaAs chips, will be more effective and cheaper and the frenzied demand for cdma2000 licences will be highly lucrative. Mqurice PS: The enemy is me? Well, in deciding who to accuse I did get as far as the jury, voters, mass consciousness and that brought me back to me. Ramsey Su. But I decided that 'enemy' is a bit more actively opposing than my passive ignorance and blind spots. A bit like a rock cannot really be said to be the enemy of itself. Even if it is a Zenrock. So I stopped at the State, because the State is the power holder, not the jury, which is simply an authorized arm of the state, just as competitors are. The will of the boss of all bosses is the friend or enemy. But in the USA, the State is said to derive from the will of the people. In Iraq it doesn't. But they are all a bit squishy and there seems to be a dichotomy as in so many things. Maybe the enemy is 'us' rather than 'me'. All a bit tricky, even for a weekend. I think 'enemy' needs to include the concept of who is doing the eating and who is dinner. Persuading a customer away from somebody else is hardly 'eating'. But stealing somebody's property can certainly come into the 'eating' category. That is the State's prerogative. Not the jury's. Not mine. Not L M Ericsson's as they can only steal if permitted to do so by the State. The jury can only permit stealing if authorized by the State.