To: Gary L Schultz who wrote (5930 ) 8/7/1998 10:41:00 PM From: WTMHouston Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6735
Gary: My guess (and that's all any of us can do) is that we hang around the current area for ~2-3 months +/- 300 points. I am not worried about 7400 hundred unless it closes below 8100. 7400 would be a crash, not just a correction. I think 10,000 is more likely than 7400 over the next 12 months. Any strength returning to Asia or the perception that things will get better could make this correction a distant memory very quickly. I have bought a little this week because my gut tells me that this is a buying opportunity - even if short term. We may have to test the 8300 range again though before there will be a sustainable rebound. Similarly, it could be 6+ months before we see 9300 again. Incoming cash has been a major factor in the long bull run and there are few signs that the cash inflows are coming to a permanent end. The mutual funds can't keep a lot of cash for long and my guess is that folks will still be pouring it into the funds because 5-6% in bonds just doesn't look very good for the long term. Corrections are good and this one is no different. The market may have been overbought at 9300, but it was very oversold at 8300. Growth in some sectors may be slowing but it hasn't stopped and there is little reason to believe that it will. Still some good companies and stocks out there (like my continued favorite CTAL). We may all have to look a little harder, but they are there. This looks a lot like what the market did when it hit ~7200 and then ~8200. Climb and correct, climb and correct - always with some worry, but always nonetheless. Sure, it can go WAY down and anyone in it should be able to weather it if it does, but I don't think it is very likely: the fundamentals have not changed that dramatically. But, my guesses without a nickel won't buy a piece of bubble gum much less any stock: the nickel may, however, buy 2 1/2 shares of some stock at a certain infamous price....had to do something to get this somewhat on topic.....:) Good weekend to all..... Troy