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Strategies & Market Trends : HONG KONG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dayuhan who wrote (2037)	8/8/1998 3:57:00 AM
From: Tom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2951

Same old story, Steve. Foreign investment -- and the RP requires foreign monies -- is not prepared as yet to distinguish between the Philippines and others in the region. SEAsia is adrift in the heart of the crisis now. I'm not surprised that there is a sense of gloom. Export figures that had been up are slowing now. A slowing U.S. economy won't help. I guess anyone could scan the WWW and find numbers and recommendations. No time for that. What can I tell you that you haven't already heard? It's really a shame they got hit when they did. It seemed the lessons of the past had not been wasted on the Philippines. Tax reform, deepening the capital markets, lending policies, tax reform, etc., many areas displaying better policy choices. It has yet to feel the banking and real estate chaos that has visited other ASEANs. All the best elements of the RP economy, including the work force, are still harnessed to the wagon. Prudent fiscal policy is something I hope Estrada's people can manage until such time as the whip gets cracking again. Of course, now, they'll be discounted for the lack of a track record. All the more reason for him to keep Ramos' better projects and policies moving along. IMO: None of the pressure is going to come off the SEAsian economies until something forces the U.S. to come down from Never, Never Land. (The Germans took some shine off the new paradigm gloat last week with some fairly fundamental observations.) That is the instance which would force investment to distinguish between real and unrelated circumstances, and serve to remove the monetary pressures from the fiscal necessities that the RP requires to effect economic expansion. True that some nations were courting havoc, but some weren't and don't deserve to be constrained by policies launched from a U.S. dollar platform that's been proven well enough for my liking to be near 30% overvalued. I could help a bit, you know, if they'd get rid of those unpleasant 'B' share premiums; maybe merge the Ayala shares and give me a clean swipe at 'em.