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Biotech / Medical : Zonagen (zona) - good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hank who wrote (5146)	8/8/1998 1:37:00 AM
From: Linda Kaplan	Respond to of 7041

A bit of a pop is expected after the trip from 26 to 17, but after that I read it as you do. I think ZONA will go down to the 12-13 area, barring any great news, and much lower than the 12-13 area if there's some bad news. It's easy to overestimate the potential of a stock. VVUS was discussed on CNBC today and I was remembering how sure so many stockholders were that Viagra would increase the awareness of the problem and increase Muse's sales! They underestimated the distaste for their delivery system. Similarly, the longs here feel that Viagra opens the door for Vasomax. I think it's a similar mistake in judgment. Viagra closes the door to competitors that have little to offer and Vasomax has little to offer. Viagra has the market and I think nothing will take any part of the market from them that doesn't offer much more than Viagra offers. If Vasomax were approved, I think it'd flop and that ZONA would then be trading far lower than VVUS is trading. I'd think anyone should hold their short position for mid-single digits if we could get an approval from the FDA soon. Linda