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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (12877)	8/8/1998 5:31:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

I think the technical rebound will continue through the early part of next week. This is not a roaring back but a more timid return of money that has been sidelined. The market and political worries have not gone away but are familiar enough for people to ignore them for the time being. They may well crop up again to be a catalyst in determining how people "feel" about investing and how foreign money flows into U.S. equities. Factors that can't be easily figured out are the events surrounding the Clinton blow-job scandal, and Japan/Asian concerns - they will remain potentially volatile issues but the tinder box climate has at least partially burned itself out. Following a short liquidity driven rebound, the market may well retreat a bit more and retest the recent lows. This will likely occur on lower volume than the record volumes of the slide down. By the end of the year, I expect the market to return to near the previous highs. The tech stocks should do very well into next year as many market adjustments, such as those created by lower PC prices, will have had time to work out. Where are earnings improvements and growth going to turn up? I think money will continue to plow into the blue chip stocks because the basic structure of investing remains the same - money pouring into mutual and pension funds tends to gravitate toward the well known stocks rather than the mid-small caps. Saying that, some of the beaten down sectors that have the bad news factored in and improvement not too far on the horizon will pick up - many showing more appreciation than the blue chips. However, I don't think the broad market of small caps are ready outshine the blue chips at this point - there is too much uncertainty and perceived risk to pull money away from the blue chips. The small caps are at a disadvantage because funds find it much easier to follow the herd. The sectors I like are specialty retailers, some consumer goods producers, many of the semi, semi equip (a bit early), software, networking and other tech stocks. I think the tech and retail sector will be leaders in the economy. Bulls may be quick to point out that Amazon.com is a specialty retailer. That is true and it will likely benefit from increased speculation due to the health of the sector. However, Amazon.com is valued on 5 year or more earnings expectations and the immediate benefit of being part of the sector are misdirected - with the stock price already so high, why should temporary things realy matter? A stock's price has everything to do with perceptions so it could still have an effect on the stock price - something bears and bulls alike should keep in mind if for nothing else than to time their trading strategies.