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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19204)	8/8/1998 1:05:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

Bear Saga--A tale of missing no opportunity to miss an opprotunity! Why charts and experts are permanently short -- if you go back in archives in March, when we bounced off that 7800 level end up 9314 most of the time this particular chart was a contrary indicator of the market move. In these market one needs to be nimble and take advantage of peaks-- since July 96 to July 98 three major peaks -- one in Mar 96 a move from Jul96 levels of 5400 to 7200-- second from Apr- May 97 dip of 6800 to 8400 peak of July- Aug 97 and the third move was Oct 97 dip of 6900 to July Aug peak of 9314. It will be shocking reading if you read on or about the dates when we had sharpest dips within a bull leg, you will find that it was always negative sentiment under which market had to move forward. My own small little career owes its origin on SI to reaction to shorting CSCO in April 97 correction- shorting IBM in those days was a clarion call, I look back at this phenomenal run and look at this channel of prosperity and feel highest gratitude to readers like Abby Cohen who has been one person consistently with the bull market. Other being more banal and ordinary the Idea thread on SI. Gggg All these three peaks have one notable exception that most of the self-styled Gurus missed it- Aug 96 , March 97 and Oct 97 are three eras -- some record is here in SI-- you will find that rarely the Gurus have been able to define the move, they missed it and than have saved face with mini declines of July Aug 96, April- May of 97 Oct 97 and now we are in one right now. They have failed to see the channel of DOW between 9266 and 7700, this whole move from last two years is one hell of a move- it is contained in a perfect channel- right now we are moving higher in a channel of 9314 and 8228- we have seen the bottom of this long channel at 8499 but the real test would be at as low as 8228, this is perfectly legitimate test of lows of a 2 years long super bull. We have seen four distinctive peaks at 5700 in July 96, 7300 in March 97 8400 in July 97 and 9314 in July 98 but importantly enough we have seen far more vigorous test of lows in July- Aug 96 at 5100, in April 97 at 6400, in Oct 97 6950 and in Aug 98 8375 we have a potential to 9228 but this channel remains robust, I call this a channel of prosperity and I enjoy that go back to the archives and see that every pre-dip and opportunity has been wasted by the TA guys. I like this decisions point- market Gauge but they have a similar record rarely in bull runs on dips they have been able to warn of move up. This bull run has been missed from 96 as a matter of habit not facts- I keep repeating this argument that if P/E and dividend Yield was the propelling force behind this market we have been done by July Aug 96 correction. As I always highlight Dr Ravi Batra the author of infamous 'Bankruptcy of America' wanted every one to be in gold and he made his whole case on similar arguments what are now the core elans of lot of seriously wounded bears, I was happiest yesterday a big hedge fund is trapped with few thousand contracts at a low, the guys in the pits will never allow this big guy to see his level, pay up time for the hedge fund. Within this move next week will be interesting who will win the pits or the outsiders, the dip to 8228 will be within fair value part of my whole channel and I think the pits will not allow that level to be touched. I think we will see in next few months a move between 8499 and 9106 the channel of consolidation I call it I would see 8795 as top resistance the market immediately faces, in between it would be fun to sell on highs and buy on dips. - if one misses the run within a bull up leg it is better to rehash his tools. One can always be short but this move from lows of 5400 in July Aug 96 to highs of 9314 in July 98 did deserved a not of gratitude to those unsung heroes who in face of adversity and half cooked facts perpetuated this move. The success of markets is success of US free market system over any other cradle to grave socialist systems.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19204)	8/8/1998 5:46:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

A vote of appreciation posted for 'Jenna'-- One of the best poster on SI alongwith the ''13 days thread'' Guy-- simple and logical conclusions. KISS is the underlying argument. ''Jenna- Hi, Long overdue congratulations from a friend for running a very open honest place offering a lot of opportunity.. On Investor's Business Daily picking your stocks they, let me tell you straight without chewing any words, IBD these guys pick your posts Jenna- and they don't have the politeness to say thank you- this is what WSJ CNBC all about, you talk of divergence of Europe with US markets it ends up in next few days as decoupling of Europe with US.I hope these hot shot journalists have little decency to give credit where they pick their info from. CNBC- if the markets are up they would be on the side of buying if the markets are dropping they would sell the markets. Pits always trade against what CNBC view is, imagine if you were in the pits and someone is talking the market down you will go long at your price. This is exactly what is happening- these financial journalists by producing 'Tabloids' type of financial information are helping the pits a lot. Imagine an electronic media which hypes up the volatility of the market the ultimate beneficiaries are Pits and end loser is the small guy who panics and get slaughtered or whip sawed. May be they are serving big money but I hope if they understand to report the movements in percentage terms instead of points, this would help the small investor who gets panicked with these extraordinary moves and enter and exit at wrong time. I always advise friends to take a opposite view to CNBC on short trades, one never lose money on SPU trading. The pits in their routine breakfast conclave have an unwritten agreement to punish these hot shot financial journalists. SPU trading is the most manipulative market they run stops on up side and down side financial journalism does best to help them achieve their goals albeit without any intention. At 1060 the pits went long and little did these CNBC guys realized that the market will come back with such a vengeance. In a bull trend to talk of bear market and dance Ralph Accompara as champion of bears reflected nothing but Sensationalisation and mediocrity of financial media. Last week was great example of these manipulations --I just wanted to tell you that I am not in so many stocks my universe is limited but I enjoy your professionalism and fundamental analysis they make sense and stack up to what I call serious analysis. For me, you are the market maker. Keep doing the good job-- You are one of the best. Hats off to you and your thread- it is one good place to highlight the fundamentals strengths of underlying equities. Sorry for disturbing you. Ike''