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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tim Luke who wrote (12731)	8/8/1998 2:35:00 PM
From: Jenna	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 120523

e-mail Some more FAQ's.. Questions: When is a stocks' collapse a possible buy opportunity as opposed to a leave it and forget it deal? answer: I am only able to set forth an opinion. I feel that if there are no fundamental changes in the company's outlook and no statements of any loses in earnings going forward, you can be comfortable watching the stock and waiting for a sign of reversal and get in for a short term hold or swing trade. (i.e. FINL,TAXI,CMGC,UNH) A 'leave and forget it deal' would be SOC,BOST,Z,GBFE Lots of declines are attributed to rumors and in some cases they are proved false. In other cases like CLCX it took a little more time for the law suit to be settled but CLCX has made gains since it's original loss due to the law suit. Conversely when a company fails to meet expectations and is subsquently downgraded, I would wait for it to hit bottom as it inevitably will. I don't think the buy would come immediately not as quickly as the situation cited above. When would a company that beats the street become a buy? answer: Usually if a company that isn't already trading at a very large multiple beats the street it is upgraded. [Unfortunately if the company is trading at very high multiple and is at the top of their trading range it could be considered overbought and would actually be downgraded AFTER earnings. (Sanmina) ] So if the stock is NOT downgraded and if the stocks earnings estimates for the coming quarter and fiscal are usually revised upwards. It is at this point that the institutions and mutual funds take notice. You will notice very large trading blocks going through at this time. How does identification with a sector in disfavor effect a stock that has strong fundamental and good value on its own merit? answer: I would look at the company and check it's earnings velocity going forward the next three to five years. There are value indicators you can use, and also internet resources such as Zacks Earnings Estimates, Analysts' concensus rankings, Value Line, etc. If the company looks to have accelerated growth prospects going forward it could possibly be a buying opportunity.

To: Tim Luke who wrote (12731)	8/8/1998 5:13:00 PM
From: LastShadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 120523

Tim Luke: I am sorry. Please forgive the lack of focus in my posts. I didn't mean to imply that I have no losses. Some weeks my sheet looks the exact opposite of that, and that dialog missed the point I should have made. But last week was good, and in fact none of those picks were mine, they came from this thread and a read of the tick. And anyone placing orders shortly after the time of the entry or exit posts would have made at least half that, if not more. As Jeff and myself and others pointed out, one tends to overtrade and lose sight of where the larger movements in the stock are. If I look at ASND for example, there was no reason to enter and exit it dozens of times this year. Once or twice perhaps, but a simple trendline would tell you to stay in most cases. At times, like for KTEL, there is only a one or two day window every couple of months to make money. Yes, there are wins and losses, and their are periods of time when one can generally do better than others. But the next few months will be no different than the last two months. Jenna has been posting the sectors as they cycle through their rises, and others here have made many notes about particular industries that were worth following for the moment. I didn't mean to imply that 65% wasn't an admirable goal. But merely having that goal and no strategy won't make it happen. It isnt the stock or the market or the data or reaction time or even the broker that will make one successful - it is a well defined and workable strategy - whether that is using only gap plays, or earning plays or some TA indication or familiarity with the stock. Granted, I did develop a specific net just for KTEL, and that was the bulk of the profit, but the strategy was the same as for the others on the list. lastshadow