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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jbn3 who wrote (57161)	8/8/1998 2:34:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Bachman- Great posts lately (by you).. V Gate: TM has also stated on more than one occasion that he is "comfortable" with 2nd quarter estimates, consistent with his past statements about earnings (in previous quarters) I can't agree with you more concerning your opinions about Dell meeting 2nd quarter earnings...Let me add this: I think MD and TM are aware of what happened in the 1st quarter (ie., on April 8, in New York at the analysts meeting, they came out extremely bullish) and this drove the expectation (whisper number) to a ridiculous level....Dell had a fantastic 1st quarter, but because of the hightened (I would say, unrealistic) expectations, the stock still got hammered..MD and TM came out and said that with each succeeding quarter it would be harder for Dell to "blow-out" the estimates, simply because analysts were getting better at knowing what the final number would be (wink, wink, nod, nod...I think this is not necessarily the case this quarter, but...). And, logically, TM and MD are right, logically the analysts should be getting better, right? The point is, I believe, so far, they have downplayed how good this quarter really is going to be.....taking a page out of Microsoft's book... Well, anyway, I think TM is just setting things up where Dell can confortably exceed the analyst projections by .3 or .4 cents....I don't think MD or TM want to answer the "what's wrong with Dell" questions if they come in at .47 or .48 (even though it would represent a very strong quarter indeed- especially given the horrendous performance by others in the industry).... All this IMO, but we will know soon enough...

To: jbn3 who wrote (57161)	8/8/1998 2:59:00 PM
From: Lbags	Respond to of 176387

3, I whole heartedly agree with your analysis. I too was somewhat concerned with Meredith's reluctance to discuss second quarter earnings. However, after thinking it over, perhaps it was his desire not to heighten expectations. It seems with all of the earnings warnings which came out last quarter from HP, INTC, CPQ, etc. that Dell made numerous statements about how sales were "robust". This probably created high expectations on the part of investors, and probably a higher whisper number. It seems management is a little more muted this quarter. My take on Dell's recent performance is that along with the points noted in your post, investors this quarter are simply waiting for the actual earnings report before making their move. As a result, I feel we will see a modest increase in the stock price up until earnings. From there, Dell's EPS and split announcement will determine the amount the stock will run up from there. Just my opinion... Kevin