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To: Tony Viola who wrote (62100)	8/8/1998 2:44:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Respond to of 186894

Tony - Re: 'What are these weird Intel chip shortage stories, turned into production problems stories?" They all seem to have their origin with ESC Technologies whatisnew.com A distributor of CPU components. Paul

To: Tony Viola who wrote (62100)	8/8/1998 2:47:00 PM
From: Dale J.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Tony and thread - I don't think Intel pre-announced, but he is a report from CNBC: By Amanda Grove CNBC ALREADY a high percentage of companies are making negative preannouncements. And analysts are revising earnings downward when it comes to year-over-year growth for the S&P 500 stocks. First Call says it has already identified a negative trend. "The fact that we've gone from 10 percent [earnings growth] at the beginning of the third quarter on July 1st, down to 6.5 percent now - that's 3.5 percentage points in just over a month," said First Call's research director Chuck Hill. "Normally you get about a 2.5 percentage drop in the estimates over the full quarter." That's a bad sign, Hill says, considering that we're only a third of the way through the quarter. Among those companies that have negatively preannounced: National Semiconductor, Intel, Linear Technology, LSI Logic, Wausau Paper Mills and DuPont. The main culprit, says Hill, is Asia. "When you look at the industries where the companies are being effected most," he said, "it's the kind of thing where Asia's the problem - whether it's commodities pricing, oils, metals, papers, chemicals or whether it's technology selling a lot of their product to Asia." As for sectors, First Call says the hardest hit - year-over-year for the third quarter - will be energy, including stocks like oils and drillers. They're expected to be down 19 percent; basic materials like paper, chemicals and metals are expected to be down 14 percent; and technology is expected to rise only 6 percent. "If the numbers are going down so dramatically for basic materials, which is a deep cyclical, and for energy, which is sort of associated with GDP, clearly people are making the assumption that this is going to be one weak economy going down throughout," said Ash Rajan, who tracks earnings for Prudential Securities. Experts say investors should focus on the earnings-revision activity during the next month or so to see whether the Asian problem will continue to plague earnings this quarter and next.

To: Tony Viola who wrote (62100)	8/8/1998 3:07:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 186894

Tony - Chip Shortages Here's a report from a PC builder in Canada that cannot "get" AMD or Intel CPUs. {=================================} techweb.com August 10, 1998, Issue: 695 Section: Editor's Note/Letters Where Are The Chips? With improved chip speeds, can a human being really notice the difference between a chip with Level 2 cache and a chip without Level 2 cache ("Intel To Ship Chip Early," July 27, p. 34)? If the answer is no, then who cares? We make and service commercial company systems. Many Fortune 500 companies we service still use 486 DOS-based computers in many applications. When we order CPUs, we don't have a choice anymore- we buy what's available. I suggest that chipmakers Intel and Advanced Micro Devices need some competition. Right now, we can't find a CPU in Canada to build a new computer with. It's availability that worries us, not CPU speed! Ken Gerelus Owner Platinum Data Products Calgary, Alberta Copyright r 1998 CMP Media Inc. {=======================================} I have trouble believing all this, but I secretly hope it's true - true in the sense that DEMAND has suddenly exceeded supply - not that Intel has had production problems. The last "chip shortage" of 1994/1995 ended with a BANG ! The semiconductor stock went vertically UP during this time period, then cam VERTICALLY DOWN when the shortage turned into a glut overnight. Paul