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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ken Clayton who wrote (558)	8/8/1998 10:14:00 PM
From: Daytek77	Respond to of 81118

Ken The Junior bear market actually started in May '96. This is when the VSE index peaked. This index is an excellent proxy for speculative stocks. Unfortunately it continues to make new lows with no bottom in sight. The rallies after May '96 have been bear market rallies short and quickly reversed. The Bre-X/Golden Rule et al, fiascos was the nail in the coffin. So by my count we are 27 months into the bear. Since gold and oil have tanked this has kept stocks down for the count. Rallies will be met with a torrent of selling because most people are in at higher prices also as Mr. Murphy points out these companies must issue shares if their price rises to do any work which will cause further dilution. My opinion is we will have rallies but they should be sold. To change market psychology you need sustained higher Gold and oil prices. Personally I am looking at first quarter '99 as a possible turning point. We may see a rally before then but since I believe the general markets will tank before year-end which will cause a climax sell-off leaving us with a fresh start next year. This is what I am looking for. There will be many opportunities if this unfolds and a lot of money will be made for those who are astute enough to recognize the bear is in hibernation. All the best Tony