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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William C. Spaulding who wrote (57178)	8/8/1998 5:47:00 PM
From: Sig	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi William: BUT WAIT! Observe the miracles of modern math. <<< Dell started the year closing at 42 7/8. It's last close was at 107 1/4. >>> I choose to start on Jan 5th, Dell at 44, Nasdaq ~ 1500 . <<< I believe 1st qtr. earnings this year increased 63% from last year's 1st quarter. If the stock price kept pace with actual growth, then the stock price from the beginning of this year would be $70 >>> Adjusting Dells stock price for the 63% earnings increase, AND for the 23.3% increase in average Nas prices(from 1500 to ~1850) the result is $90 share. <<< Overall, the market doesn't look good right now.>>> Agreed, and would you not pay a premium to own stock in a company which not only makes money in these difficult times but manages to increase earnings and margins while others are laying off workers,restructuring, and stuggling to prevent prevent major losses?? What amount should that premium be??? More than 20% would mean Dell is undervalued. As you say, we have to wait and find out (all in good fun) Sig

To: William C. Spaulding who wrote (57178)	8/8/1998 6:11:00 PM
From: VICTORIA GATE, MD	Respond to of 176387

William C. Spaulding To: jbn3 (55234 ) From: VICTORIA GATE, MD Thursday, Jul 30 1998 12:53PM ET Reply # of 57181 jb3, re: "Am I right?" Yes, I that is a correct interpretation of my statement. Future stock growth will not be the same as we have been use to. So for those that already hold a position in dell, it is not necessary to add much more to your position. Since it is more worthwhile to hold off for a better opportunity. vg

To: William C. Spaulding who wrote (57178)	8/10/1998 4:40:00 AM
From: Matthew G Buetow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

William and all: Boy if I had only listened to you! "Folks, I can't say where this market is going, but I will warn you all not to be margined, and not to have any investments that you don't feel comfortable holding if the market continues to tank. I know Dell is a great company and I'm not saying otherwise, but that doesn't mean it can't decline considerably. It is certainly not unrealistic that it may decline below 50. I know this thought is repugnant to those of you who still believe in the bull, but it's a realistic possibility, nonetheless. I'm not saying that it will continue to tank; I'm only saying that you should be prepared if it does. Ask yourself this: What would you do if Dell does go down to 50, 40, or less? How would you feel? If you can weather the storm, great! But if you can't, then you better lower your risk exposure. If the market continues to decline, then Dell will go with it regardless of the earnings it reports. This is exactly what happened in 1995. And don't necessarily be convinced the bull is still running if there are a few up days. There will be, but they may be just blips in the declining chart. There were a few good days in the last 2 months of 1995, especially at the beginning of December and toward the end of the year, but the trend was still clearly downward anyway. Again, I'm not saying this is going to happen, only that you should be prepared if it does happen. This market is spooking a lot of people who are taking their profits out now while they still can (in their minds), and this will pressure the market. I, myself, have decided to stay out of the market until mid-January, since earnings times are usually more predictable (but not in October). Good luck to the rest of you." You were almost right! Dell did drop below 50, about 37, of course this is adjusted for a split. Don't you think saying basically the same thing at the risk of being wrong again is unwise??? I used to not be a believer until Dell just constantly kept doing the same thing. This is a hard stock to bet against and many people get burned doing it. You never hear of someone writing an article on someone who shorted Dell and is making a killing, do you? You DO, however, see articles on people (Kemble Matter) who have made a killing on Dell and can retire early. Yes, we will wait and see, but I think everyone should load up now. It seems that when you posted the above message on Nov. 13, 1997 that it was the bottom and Dell started steadily moving up as it always does year in and year out. I'm not saying I'm a genius. I just don't publicize my predictions at the risk of looking ignorant. You were very wrong before why do it again??? I will concede that I am long on Dell because I decided that it just keeps going up and they keep doing better and yes, this does make me biased. Don't get me wrong, everyone's entitled to their own opinions, but I just like to point when someone has such a strong opinion that's been wrong before. How many times will it take to change your mind about Dell. Have you ever heard the expression, "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em." I think that's the way it is with Dell. You will not win shorting it, so you might as well go long and oh maybe double, or even triple your money in a year. Sounds good to me. I'm finished rambling, just wanted to make you aware of your mistake last year in case you had forgotten. If I make a mistake in my posts feel free to correct me. Good night and I hope you're wrong again on Dell.