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To: Frodo Baxter who wrote (704)	8/8/1998 6:56:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2025

Lawrence; <<Nice fantasy... here's the reality>> The link that follows simply points to a press report that summarizes the semi report in question. Am I missing something? I'll respond to other parts of your post later. Best, Stitch

To: Frodo Baxter who wrote (704)	8/8/1998 7:13:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2025

Lawrence, Yes...I read the GSR also. A human trait is the penchant for hearing what we want to hear and disregarding the rest. However, thats not what I had in mind when I posted the bullish report. It was a notable voice of optimism in a sea of worry and I felt it was worth reading. It also provided a backdrop for the app article on Intel and how they do, indeed, "drive markets". I am a little dubious of the timing in the report but believe the scenario is a reasonable model of how profitability will return to the techs. Re: your non-treatise du jour I have the following questions: <<a) the only cheap tech is dead tech>> Do you mean the products or the stocks? <<b) tech is expensive and cash flow negative>></> Same question. <<virtual integration >> Do you really mean virtual integration as in the buzzword invented by WDC or do you mean to say vertical integration? <<Japan's problems can't be "solved". >> Well..there are differing levels of "creative destruction". Even if Japan has to go back to a totally clean slate there could eventually be a reemergence. (Sans Marshall plan I suspect). Best, Stitch

To: Frodo Baxter who wrote (704)	8/10/1998 9:47:00 AM
From: Sam	Respond to of 2025

"Here's the reality": Here is the other part of the reality: Siemens closing a plant that they just opened 15 months ago. techweb.com. And companies going out of business because they don't have the cash to invest new productive equipment: techweb.com. Eventually downturns lead to upturns. The process is delayed by governments investing in businesses, keeping them going by pumping new money into them no matter what, as they care less about losing money than they do about their dual goals of keeping people employed on the one hand, and making sure that their backers can keep building their fortunes on the other. The game unravels when they can no longer print enough money or have access to enough debt to maintain their investments. And the game unravels when too many people with the same motives the same access to printing presses and debt get into it. And that is how the currency speculators keep flush, why they serve an critical function, and why the IMF should go out of business. However hard it is from one perspective, by keeping these countries afloat and allowing them to continue to pursue their export-driven model, they are hurting everyone in the long run; at least in Asia they are (maybe Mexico's situation was different enough that the IMF actually had a positive role to play there, I'm not sure). Analogous to the prisoners' dilemma, the export-driven model was rational when only a few countries pursued it, but when a country the size of China jumps into the game, its fundamental flaws become apparent. I suppose someone must have written a prisoner's dilemma book on this issue--does anyone know what it is? Or if not, LK, maybe you can do your dissertation on it.