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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas C (Hijacked) who wrote (23698)	8/8/1998 7:39:00 PM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

TC, Thanks for the post and points well taken. I was just referring to the historical FACT(?) that when the INVESTMENT ADVISORS are either bearish or bullish almost unanimously (eg... Rukyser's elves) that they are DEAD wrong! What can I say! Bill

To: Thomas C (Hijacked) who wrote (23698)	8/8/1998 8:10:00 PM
From: Thomas C (Hijacked)	Respond to of 94695

Well they say a bear is always looking for bad news, and call me crazy but I was in the library today looking at the 1929 New York Times (I know I know, I need to get a hobby) and looked at the financial commentary for the 7 or so tick mark dates that marked the final rally (Oct 7th 1929, to Oct. 14th) What I find rather interesting is that the comments they made on Oct 7th 1929 are rather similar to the ones I just read on Microsoft Investor market commentary. On the 7th in 1929 they talk about the improved techincal condition of the market, the all inclusive recovery, the mention that even the oils and airline stocks 'moved with a considerable amount of vigor'. Similar things were said on the MS investor site. I have heard a few comments on here that stocks were getting hammered in the last hour or so. And I have looked at the daily chart charts of the dow last week a few times and that appears to be so. I am not sure of the psychological significance. Well anyway here is a little excerpt from the Oct 18, 1929 trading day commentary (days before the big slide would begin to start) The fatal hour "It was remarked yesterday afternoon that, so far as those who are friendly to the market are concerned, trading should have been stopped at 2'oclock over the last fortnight. They at least would have been better off. It has been the final hour, on each of the recent declines, in thich the greatest damage has been done. All the wide declines were established yesterday in the final hour of trading. At 2 o'clock stocks looked healthy, and while somewhat uneven they were moving along quietly. At the end of the next hour they were disheveled and bedraggled." and one more from the 8th of Oct, 1929.....this clip references the recovery from the big down draft, similar to our 299 point drop... Opposite Inferences "Instead of deriving encouragement from the fact that the market at yesterday's close had more than recovered the losses suffered since Wednesday night of last week, the professional trading element viewed that fact more as a "bear argument" Ordinarily Wall Street hails with undisguised delight the retraceing of ground lost in a setback. Yesterday the general attitude was that this situation might invite fresh selling" isnt that way things sort of feel now? from CNBC etc... tc