Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (6552)	8/8/1998 10:53:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Ramsey, I'm the last person that you should expect to come to the defense of Analysts. However, when it comes to Abbey Josephs Cohen, she has been consistent, accurate and always credible, IMO, if not somewhat conservative. Her bullish estimates have been exceeded regularly. You say, ...the above statement is totally false. You also say, ...What troubles me is bullish comments about Asia are never followed by reasons, data and facts that substantiates that opinion.... Well, let me say, "What troubles me is your comments about Abbey are never followed by reasons, data and facts that substantiates that opinion." For example, most of the US economy is internal to the US (about 85% I believe). Most of the rest is with Canada, Mexico, Latin America and Europe. The portion that is due to the FarEast has not just disappeared. In fact, in some countries, it continues to grow. If the current crisis is contained to the Far East, then I would fully agree with AJC that "...the menace of the Asian economic crisis and the rise in the dollar have been overblown." If the crisis is not contained, but spreads unchecked to the rest of the world, then, obviously, nothing has been overblown (with the possible exception of the Clinton - Lewinsky scandal) - Pun Intended. Re picking up assets cheap now: That's a very different issue than WDC, NKE, Mattel setting up manufacturing in Asia during Boom times. What's happening now is that the Fortune 500 members are picking up prime assets for much less than book from distressed companies. The global economy has grown since the beginning of time. In recent years, (the last couple centuries), growth occurs in 3 out of 4 years approximately. Another way to state that is that Bulls are right 3 times as often as bears. Lastly, on changing her tone: yes, if and when that happens, I would expect a short and sharp sell off. But I still don't expect that even a guru such as AJC will change the fundamental reality of economic growth. I'm surprised that Ralph "Make-me-Poorer" Acampura had as much impact as he did on Wednesday. But based upon Thursday and Friday, the market seems to have returned to business as usual. FWIW, Ian

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (6552)	8/9/1998 8:59:00 AM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Ramsey, <<Companies such as Nike, WDC, and Mattel, with manufacturing heavily concentrated, if not entirely, in Asia, have not benefited from the stronger greenback. >> I have to differ with you on this statement. Without doubt the U.S. dollar goes much further here so that, most assuredly, these companies have seen declines in operating expense. I know little about Nike and Mattel, but WDC's malaise is not related to the Asian economic crisis so much as many market and strategic factors. Perhaps the biggest negative factor was their delay in migrating to MR heads. But there are many others such as Maxtor's success in taking market share. But, other then this one statement, I agree that Cohen and others are still underestimating the importance of the troubles in Asia. best, Stitch

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (6552)	8/9/1998 10:51:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

<<As we all know by now, the above statement is totally false. Companies such as Nike, WDC, and Mattel, with manufacturing heavily concentrated, if not entirely, in Asia, have not benefited from the stronger greenback. >> I think you're overstating this somewhat. For sure these companies are not doing too hot, but there is considerable economic benefit to the US general economy from the strong dollar, although whether it is more or less than the downside is way beyond my capabilities. I think actually these co's do benefit, they just suck for other reasons. But, for instance, there's a lot more money in everyone's pockets these days. If you buy a computer, car, tv, furniture, clothes, gasoline, etc., prices are showing a marked downtrend, at least in my experience. I can't believe how inexpensive men's suits have gotten. And the money I save goes into the market. Some companies, also, are certainly benefitting. PIR has done well the past year or two, for a straight example. But I agree with your general point. This optimism about a recovery in Asia is rarely based on hard analysis and backed by facts. It's just speculation and hopefulness.