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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RXGOLF who wrote (24238)	8/8/1998 10:49:00 PM
From: tonyt	Respond to of 32384

*OFF TOPIC* Its still relevant to the discussion on the uselessness of after hours activity. It was demonstrated about a week ago (at least once, maybe twice) when a late trade was above the close, yet the next days open was at, or below the close.

To: RXGOLF who wrote (24238)	8/8/1998 11:12:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Greg, I think that our famous naysayer is again missing the point. Prior to this week, LGND's volume had been rather low, which was not a favorable situation when AGN announced that it was planing on sell all or most of its LGND holdings over the next several quarters (and they had already sold a significant amount in 2Q). When LGND's volume was around 100K per day, there was little institutional involvement. Last week, there was some nibbling, but it was happening after hours. The next day the price would return to its slightly lower level, as if the big boy buys had not actually happened. As I have said before, wholesale and retail are sometimes really separate markets. Retail exchange shares at a given level, but the big boys decide where they want to trade, and the MMs move the price accordingly. This week the sell-off earlier in the week (third biggest point drop on the Dow and second biggest on the NSADAQ) brought LGND down to a price that the big boys were ready to buy big time (last week the buys were blocks in the 10K to 17.7K range - Friday they were 41K to 50K on the buy side and up to 60K on the sell side). Friday's action set the stage for a quick clearing of the overhang. When one big boy buys, others take note, and sometimes this can leading to some very heavy volume over many days (which is what happened in Dec of 1995). ML (Merrill Lynch not Monica Lewinsky) is handling the AGN overhang and they are probably acquainted with some big boys :-). AGN wants to sell, but since they plan on selling for several quarters, they would like to sell without knocking down the price. Thus, when natural buyers come onto the scene, there is heavy volume but little price movement - although the price can creep higher if enough big boys come to the party. Friday, it looked like the party had begun. It will interesting to see if it continues next week.