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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (4813)	8/9/1998 1:07:00 AM
From: flickerful	Respond to of 9523

News You Can Use................. BigKNY3 you may find this search engine helpful... it is lightning fast, and radically streamlined. infind.inference.com your summary is greatly appreciated. thanks, randy

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (4813)	8/9/1998 7:25:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9523

The Peabody Report: 8/09/98 The Peabody Report is intended to foster conversation on the PFEr Board. Comments are welcome and encouraged. Invest only after conducting your own research. Have PFun! BigKNY3 __________________________________________________________ Peabody Peak/Valley Status Peabody Peaks and Valleys since 1/90 (Updated 8/07/98) www3.techstocks.com Chart of Peabody Peaks and Valleys with Moving Averages dailystocks.net Useful PFEr Links -3 year PFE chart versus the Dow growth. control.bigcharts.com Peabody Model Trend Prediction Based on historical PFE patterns, the Peabody Model predicts the following trend direction: A pending Peabody Valley (102.13) was reached last Friday as PFE corrected with the general market (-7.9%). Since the predicted Valley price of 107 has been reached, the Model predicts the PFE trend will reverse and will head to a new Peabody Peak of 121.35 by August 25, 1998. Commentary History repeats! In August, 1997, PFE declined 21.1% to a Peabody Valley of 51.06 as the summer general market corrected. The current Peak to Valley decline is 15.3% ...reflecting similar market conditions. Since it is based primarily on historical trends and Mr. Peabody "gut-feels", the Peabody Model should always be placed in context of the market environments and anticipated news. As evidenced by the mythical Peabody Portfolio (see section below), the Peabody Model works particularly well for PFE investors with a "buy, hold, and buy more at the Valley" investing strategy. New or pfuture PFErs could consider investing 50% immediately and investing the remainder at near Peabody Valleys. ......................................PFE.........................% Chg from...............# Days .....................................Date.........Price.......Last Price (8/07/98)......From Today Last Peabody Peak:..... 7/14/98......120.56..........+16.5% ...................-26 Last Peabody Valley: .. 8/07/98 ....102.13.......... -1.3% ......................-2 Pending Forecasted Next Peak.....8/25/98....121.35..........+17.2%................ 16 Peak Strike Price............................112.34............+8.5% Forecasted Next Valley................... 98.33.............-5.0%.................. (If Model is Wrong) ______________________________________________ Peabody Short-term PForecasts Peabody Short-Term PForecast (8/02/98): PFE: 109.81, DJ: 8,883: PFE will once again be driven by market forces beyond its control. The very low PFE volume on Friday indicates the Valley will go lower as profit-taking continues. Be very aware of buy opportunities, they will disappear as the trend heads back up. Da Gut Feel: A new Valley will be set around 105-106 followed by a rally to close the week above 110. Evaluation of Peabody PForecast: A great Valley call...However, PFE was slow to recover and closed the week... weak..Thumbs Down. Peabody PForecast Record (73 weeks): 47-26 (64%) _________________________________________________________ Peabody Short-Term PForecast (8/09/98): PFE: 103.50, DJ: 8,598: After one week of predicted declines, the Peabody Model has reversed and is strongly bullish. Although the general market may test another 1-2% decline, I anticipate a return to the bull run and strong gains throughout Big Pharma and High Tech. Accordingly, last week the Peabody portfolios added to its favorites including PFE, MSFT, CSCO and AOL. Da Gut Feel: Ding, ding, ding......that's the bell for a PFE buying opportunity. Any purchases from 98- 104 will be a big winner in view of the anticipated international approval of Viagra next month. I expect PFE to be flying by the end of the week. ___________________________________________ Peabody Portfolio For only the second time in its history, the Portfolio made two purchases in a single week. Total return:........................................+65.6% PFE @ 103.50 Annualized return:...............................+67.1% % of Peabody purchases in the black... 73% (16 out of 22) The Peabody Portfolio consists of 22 PFE purchase recommendations listed on the PFEr Board since August 14, 1996. To date, the Portfolio has purchased 3,800 PFE shares at an average price of $62.51 (only 2.81% off the subsequent next PFE Valleys). ________________________________________ # PFE Shares Purchased:.......... 3,800 Average Price of Purchases:....... $62.51 Total Costs: ...............................$237,550 Total Market Value:.....................$393,300 Total Potential Profit:...................$155,750 Date............#..........Purchase Purchased...Shares...Price 8/14/96:..... 200 ........$36.38 10/25/96:....200 .........$40.44 12/4/96:......200..........$41.69 12/12/96:.....200.........$40.50 12/16/96:.....200.........$40.44 12/31/96:....200..........$41.50 1/2/97:........200.........$40.94 1/28/97: ......200..........$42.38 2/28/97:.......200...........$45.69 3/24/97:.......200...........$44.88 3/27/97:.......200...........$42.81 3/31/97:........200..........$42.56 8/8/97:..........200..........$55.13 4/16/98:........200...........$97.00 4/27/98:........200...........$113.00 5/7/98:..........200...........$107.50 5/15/98:.........100..........$105.00 5/27/98 :........100 .........$101.75 7/06/98 :........100 .........$106.00 7/29/98 :........100 .........$110.50 8/05/98 :........100 .........$104.00 8/07/98 :........100 .........$102.63 Total:............3,800.........$62.51 ____________________________________________ Suggested PFE Buying Levels The following suggested PFE buying levels are based on The Peabody Model. The aggressive buying price level is used in adding shares to The Peabody Portfolio. However, depending upon market conditions an immediate purchase could be made at any time: :..................$98 to $104................................. ________________________________________ PFuture Actions That Will Effect PFE Trends Viagra Rx trends:..................................... Every Monday throughout 1998 News of Viagra adverse reactions and drug interactions: ...................................Throughout 1998 European approval of Viagra:........................August- December, 1998 Sale of Howmedica.......................................Late 1998 NDA submission of Celebra...........................Late 1998 Expedited review of Celebra.......................One month following NDA submission Initial reports of Viagra international sales.......September-October, 1998 Third Quarter Earnigs.....................................October 14, 1998 PFE R&D Meeting........................................October 29, 1998 ED news in the media: ................................Throughout 1998 Japanese approval of Viagra .........................First half, 1999 _______________________________________________ Peabody V-Files Viagra sales for the second quarter, 1998 were $411 million, the highest recorded sales for a new pharmaceutical product during its first three months on the market. Analysts estimate that Viagra will have 1998 sales of $0.923 billion, a 35.1% increase over earlier estimates. ............................................1998 Est...1998 Est ...........................................(Billions)....(Billions)..... Comments NationsBanc........................$1.100.......$0.759...... $.205B (international) Alex Brown .........................$1.000.......$0.750..... $1.2B (1999) Deutsche Bank ....................$1.000 ......$0.750..... $1.75B (1999) Gerard Klauer........................$1.000......$0.300.... $2.9B (2000) Gruntal ................................$1.000......$1.000.... $8 B peak (2005) Cowen...................................$0.850........................$5B+ (2002) Furman Seltz.........................$0.811........................Only $100M in 3rd Qt Bear Stearns..........................$0.800......$0.600 ......$200M in 3rd Qt Merrill Lynch...........................$0.750 .....$0625...... Consensus...........................$0.923.......$0.683 ____________ PFE Stock Splits PFE has split three times in the last ten years ( 2/91, 6/95, and 6/97). The Wayback Machine indicates that PFE usually announces a 2-1 split if PFE trade above 80 for 90 consecutive days. In the January, 1998 survey of 22 PFErs, only 43% felt that PFE will split in 1998. At the PFE Annual Meeting on April 23, 1998, the PFE CEO stated they will consider requesting additional authorized shares from shareholders later this year. Bottom line, a 3-1 PFE split announcement will be made in late 1998 or early 1999. A request for additional authorized shares was apparently not made by the Board on July 23, 1998.

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (4813)	8/12/1998 12:39:00 AM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9523

Today's PFE News links and quotes. Have PFun! BigKNY3 Yahoo Link quote.yahoo.com. Motley Fool Link quote.fool.com. Pink Sheets. fdcreports.com "Viagra Exerts Coattail Effect On Other Pfizer Drugs by increasing physician receptiveness to the company's sales representatives. Pfizer plans to add 700 people to GP (general practitioner) force. Pfizer, Searle are generating outcomes data to support Celebra (celecoxib) launch. In the U.S. Viagra is partially covered by health plans, but in Japan, it will be fully reimbursed. Pfizer U.S. Pharmaceutical President Karen Katen, reports that new prescription growth is flattening for Viagra but refills are strong." ED News Links Yahoo Link quote.yahoo.com Motley Fool Link quote.fool.com. Yahoo Viagra Link headlines.yahoo.com