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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andrew H who wrote (24259)	8/9/1998 7:24:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Andy, The number of Ligand stalkers are really a bit hard to say. There are some handles that show up on Yahoo fairly regularly, and on that board just about anyone can post using just about any handle, so some of the frequent posters there could be some of our chronic naysayers here. On MIS, it's pretty clear who the chronic naysayer is because of the content of the posts or the fact that they are labeled as coming from an AT&T account. Of course that board is very poorly attended, so its very obvious what is going on there, with about a dozen different handles including some with Ligand.com domains, all coming from an AT&T account: x5.dejanews.com x5.dejanews.com x5.dejanews.com x5.dejanews.com x5.dejanews.com In the past, the only two AT&T accounts posting on Ligand threads on MIS were HNiman@worldnet.att.net and tonyt@worldnet.att.net: dejanews.com@worldnet.att.net&ST=QS tonyt@worldnet.att.net used to also post on VICL and AMLN

To: Andrew H who wrote (24259)	8/9/1998 9:04:00 AM
From: tonyt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

>I think the topic of the 7900 trade has been fully covered. Ya think? henry has spent over 5 hours and 30+ posts (not including his EIGHT emails to Wallace on the subject). *We still haven't heard an explaination as to why the LAST time this happened, LGND actually opened LOWER* the next day.** Still waiting......

To: Andrew H who wrote (24259)	8/9/1998 9:19:00 AM
From: tonyt	Respond to of 32384

Henry continues to stalk usenet accusing anyone (and everyone) using an AT&T account of being me. It really has gotten to be an inside joke on usenet (check out this guys email address). Looks like a reasonable question, I don't see why henry has a problem with providing him with his opinion: Subject: Ligand (LGND) in single digits From: whothehellistonyt@worldnet.att.net (?) Date: 1998/08/06 Message-ID: <35ca2079.1116970@netnews.worldnet.att.net> Newsgroups: misc.invest.stocks [More Headers] Ligand hit a 52 week low and is now in single digits. Buy, Sell or Hold? Thanks in advance.

To: Andrew H who wrote (24259)	8/9/1998 9:23:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 32384

Andy, It's very easy to research usenet posts because its searchable by DejaNews, so each time our famous naysayer puts up a post from AT&T using one of his many aliases, a click on the "new" poster's "author profile" shows that ALL of his posts are exclusively on LGND and they all sound just like our famous naysayer, including the one that was just uploaded by guess who: Message 5450360 and of course its a VERY inside joke, because all of the posts are being put up by ONE poster :-). dejanews.com@worldnet.att.net%20(%3f)&ST=PS dejanews.com@worldnet.att.net%20(%3f)&ST=PS dejanews.com@worldnet.att.net%20(%3f)&ST=PS dejanews.com@Ligand.com%20(Ligandmania)&ST=PS dejanews.com@worldnet.att.net%20(%3f)&ST=PS dejanews.com@worldnet.att.net%20(henry)&ST=PS dejanews.com@LakeLigand.com&ST=PS And of course these posts go on and on

To: Andrew H who wrote (24259)	8/9/1998 9:28:00 AM
From: tonyt	Respond to of 32384

I guess the good news is that he's finally off of the 7.9K trade 'topic'. The bad news is that he's back on the 'tonyt' subject again (give it a rest henry, all this guy asked you was if LGND was a "Buy, Sell or Hold" -- Sheeeeesh!!). Another topic that henry would have been better off putting in the clubhouse. There is no way he can think that this old subject is on topic (....another slow day in Pittsburgh, PA). Oh well, I'm off to the shore.

To: Andrew H who wrote (24259)	8/9/1998 9:40:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 32384

I think that his record for one of his aliases is HankTheAngryDrunkenDwarf where he used that handle for 14 Ligand posts: dejanews.com@LakeLigand.com)%20%26%20%7eg%20(misc.invest.stocks)&svcclass=dnserver&ST=PS Here's his go_lgnd post dejanews.com@LakeLigand.com%20(go_lgnd)&ST=PS which he used extensively on Yahoo

To: Andrew H who wrote (24259)	8/9/1998 10:10:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 32384

Our famous naysayer's stalking on MIS actually began back in May. In his first alias (Hank Hill) post, he actually signed it "--Tony" x3.dejanews.com which like the many other aliases, was his only MIS post using that combo of name, address, and domain: dejanews.com@worldnet.att.net%20(Hank%20Hill)&ST=PS but he would modify the name and domain portion, so other Hank Hill posts would be listed independently: dejanews.com@LakeLigand.com%20(Hank%20Hill)&ST=PS I've lost count on the various combinations used, but all are from an AT&T account and these new names, addresses, or domains, only post on MIS LGND threads, many of which are actually started by our famous naysayer. On Yahoo he has used many alias. His most popular one initially was go_lgnd and he currently is using DrowningAtLakeLigand. He denies any relationship, but the content, SI member specific links, calling Legg Mason Legg Manson and otehr common elements make it rather obvious as to who is doing what. On Yahoo he would use a handle and then sign off, so a profile search would return "name not found". Consequently, someone grabbed his go_lgnd handle so he bgan posting as go__lgnd. However, at this time he has settled in on Drowning for most of his Yahoo posts, although its hard to say how many others are still being used there. He has left a rather remarkable cybertrail.

To: Andrew H who wrote (24259)	8/9/1998 11:06:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Andy, I any event, it's probably useful to focus more on LGND's fundamentals than the nonsense posted by our most famous and traveled naysayer. With LGND trading at around $10, even our famous naysayer is asking buy, sell, or hold. It's hard to predict what the rest of the market will do, and of course when the Biotechs or the entire market heads south most Biotechs travel with them. LGND has done very well with its business plan and is just about on schedule with its most advanced products. Bear Stearns, Legg Mason, and H&Q are all projecting a profit (you have to ask our most famous naysayer about Legg Manson) next year and LGND's IR confirmed last week that the product approvals and submissions were on track. The big question of course, is how much revenue will these products produce. CTCL and KS are relatively small cancer markets, and these are the initial indications which are up for review. The new drugs will be fairly expensive (I believe that a treatment course with ONTAK is expected to be $40,000), so a fair amount of revenue can be generate from a fairly small population. Targretin and Panretin will cost considerably less, but I think that a treatment course will still be in $6,000 to $10,000 range. Although these drugs are relatively cheap to make, the margins are very high because of all of the R&D required to bring a drug to market. This, off course, can be a major plus if there is significant off-label use. Such use is rather common in treating cancer patients because they have a fatal disease and many drugs either don't work at all, or stop working. I read through the most recent LGND filing, which discusses the SRGN acquisition. IL-2 receptors are expressed on many lymphoma types, the largest being non-Hodkins lymphoma. LGND plans to start a non-Hodgkin's lymphoma trial very soon, and ONTAK might be able to pick up some significant off-label sales for treating advanced cases, especially if the more advanced clinical trials are consistent with initial data for ONTAK treatment of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. The same sort of scenario is in place for oral and topical Panretin and Targretin. Topical trials for Panretin treatment of basal and squamous cell carcinomas as scheduled and the oral compounds have been in clinicals to treat psoriasis and actinic keratosis, both of which affect rather large patient populations (in the millions, not 10s of thousands). I believe that both compounds (Panretin and Targretin) show efficacy. The trick is to find the dose that is effective, but does produce significant side effects (I believe that elevated triglycerides are currently of biggest concern for the skin diseases as well as type II diabetes). These side effects are of less concern for cancer patients because of the seriousness of their diseases, and I suspect that even anecdotal results (as published for head & neck treatment by Targretin) would be sufficient for some MDs to begin to use Targretin or Panretin for advanced cancer patients. Thus, for the near term, the off label use may be a major determinant in LGND's near term growth and profits.

To: Andrew H who wrote (24259)	8/9/1998 11:21:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Although LGND has quite a bit on its plate in the area of near term product approvals, its underlying technology, which has produced one of the best, if not the best pipelines in the industry, is LGND's long term mover. Unfortunately, I don't think that retail buyers have a very good handle on technology development. They do know that it is expensive, but they haven't really figured out that a developmental company must sell technology and stock to get the required resources and they have trouble relating dilution to product pipeline. LGND has elected to develop some of its niche areas (cancer and dermatology) in house, and has farmed out some of the larger multi billion dollar metabolic disease markets. In many of the older alliances (PFE, AGN, GLX, ABT, AHP) LGND has already done its share (discovery and pre-clinicals) and they now are in a position to collect milestone and eventually royalty payments. PFE has two drugs (Droloxifene and CP-366,156) in the clinic and AHP has one (CP-366,156). LGND is developing the most advanced compounds under the AGN deal (oral and topical Panretin and Targretin as well as LGD1550), and LLY is expected to move rexinoids (Targretin, LGD1268, and LGD1324) forward in the metabolic disease areas. LGND has already recommended compounds to GLX for treating atherosclerosis and altered lipid metabolism and advancing all of these compounds will bring in funds. LGND's many internal programs will generate significant future programs. Internally, their androgen program is considered by some to be the biggest in the world, and of course their mimic program under the SBH hematopoietic growth factor alliance is causing considerable excitement in the scientific community, and concern or interest in major players in targeted markets.

To: Andrew H who wrote (24259)	8/9/1998 3:25:00 PM
From: tonyt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

>"Andy, I any event, it's probably useful to focus more on LGND's fundamentals than >the nonsense posted by our most famous and traveled naysayer. #reply-5450703 Hmmm.... lasted about three hours. #reply-5451479 (Must be a really slow day in Pitts.) I know that this is very hard for you, but henry, please try to stay "on-topic" While you're chasing of your 'white-whale' might be extreamly important to you, it is clutter to most of us. Any reason why you feel this belongs on the main thread and not the clubhouse? And andy, you're just a schmuck (...although you had a little bit of luck by selling your LGND before the meltdown -- Looks like God does look out for fools and idiots).

To: Andrew H who wrote (24259)	8/9/1998 3:41:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Andy, I think that our famous naysayer's posting pattern on various LGND threads is most definitely on topic since this thread is cluttered with such posts on a daily basis (as is the Yahoo! thread). I have found that the best way to keep the clutter down, is to largely ignore the clutterer (but every so often it is useful to update the ever expanding cyber trail, which of course was extended again today: Message 5450360 Message 5450343 ).

To: Andrew H who wrote (24259)	8/9/1998 3:44:00 PM
From: tonyt	Respond to of 32384

"(but every so often it is useful to update the ever expanding cyber trail, which of course was extended again today)." Captain Ahab is mighty obsessed this weekend! (Maybe we should just ask SI Management to close the clubhouse, as henry feels that even chasing white whales is 'on-topic'.) Oh well, in about 16 hours we'll be discussing pre-open bids :-) Seems like only yesterday LGND was in the mid-teens. Now its a daily struggle to stay out of the single digits Oh well, back to the shore for me. See you guys tonight (try not to talk about me while I'm gone). --Tony