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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19212)	8/9/1998 5:05:00 AM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

IQBAL, (may I call you Ike?) When you wrote <'returnless savings encourages savings'> I thought this was a novel and brilliant idea that shed some light on the plight of the Japanese economy. Now with the addition of Krugman's article you have begun to unveil this mystery of Japans stagnation for me. In one page I know feel I have a clue to this situation in contrast to the hundreds of pages I have read elsewhere which gave no light to my understanding of it. Many thanks to you, and also the regular posters here, for rendering a great service to fellow investors with this thread. I now return to studying (lurking), as a student should, and say thanks again, for the education. Regards, Roebear

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19212)	8/9/1998 4:05:00 PM
From: jayhawk969	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

IQ, I agree with the demographic argument. My guess is that Harry Dent author of "The Great Boom Ahead" and "The Roaring 2000's would also agree. For those that have not read his prophecy Harry predicts a strongly increasing American stock market until the Baby Boomer's are through their acquisition/spending cycle. His regression analysis holds water and is a strong supportive argument for the unprecedent boom we have recently experienced. From Krugmans conclusion: What really disturbs me is this: If we don't really understand what has gone wrong in Japan, who's to say the same thing can't happen to us? If the above premiss regarding demography is so, we may have a much stronger clue about a significant contributing force to these economic cycles. I also believe that there is another contributing explanation. I have studied personality testing rather intently over the years. After spending the better part of four years in Japan in the late 70's it became apparent to me that the Japanese have a culture marked with a defined personality imprint. This culture reflects the personality of an STJ by Meyers-Briggs personality testing. What this really means is that the Japanese culture is highly methodical, systematic, rigid, rational, and is very driven to achieve end results. The culture can sacrifice a great deal to do so. You won't find the Japanese sitting around conceptualizing. They will let others do that and then drive the application. However, with all strengths there are weakness's. One such weakness is that the STJ personality has a difficult time seeing the forest for the trees. Under pressure this personality bears down and continues to do the same thing harder. In other words the Japanese are in a rut and it is almost impossible for them to self extract. Remember that it was primarily American efforts that jolted Japan into its rebuilding efforts after WWII. Turning around a nation in excess of 100 million people will be no easy task. History tells us that it requires great leadership. It may also require an intervention of sorts. J.D.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19212)	8/9/1998 4:46:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

OT-------- I will try to make Pit news 'whenever I have' a regular feature on my thread-

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (19212)	8/9/1998 7:45:00 PM
From: Raj	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Iqbal, Interesting ideas to rescue Japan out of the "keynesean liquidity trap". I agree with your contention that government is the "worst spender of public money"; however IMO "efficieny" may be irrelevant in the current situation. One novel approach to spur consumption would be for government to encourage business to offer "attractive discounts" and then absorb the "margin loss". This may be far more effective "psycologically" than offering direct tax relief to businesses...just my hunch observing how people here scramble for "deals". On a side note, here's an article by Krugman which I found very strange and totally disagree with....Would like to hear your thoughts on this one: herring.com Raj