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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TOM MICALE who wrote (6587)	8/9/1998 12:50:00 PM
From: Ken Brown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

How can Bob be so positive? IMO, Bob relies on his timing model, as it has served him well over the past 10 years. And as he's pointed out fairly often recently, he has been able to identify many (5? 6?) buying points during the 90s. Keep in mind, as Bob also mentions fairly often, that he is dealing with probability, not certainty. No model of the future of the stock market is 100% accurate. Bob's model will fail sometime. When it does, I'm sure there'll be lots of people complaining about how much money they lost, never realizing that Bob's predictions are as close to perfection as is possible. Ken

To: TOM MICALE who wrote (6587)	8/9/1998 4:04:00 PM
From: wooden ships	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

Tom: On Saturday, reciting a raft of statistics, Brinker catalogued the historical case for buying opportunities presented in election years in the middle of a presidential term (as is A.D. 1998). Brinker concluded, "Off presidential election years have, almost with scary regularity, produced buying opportunities. It's my contention that that (the recent market correction) is what we just saw; that we have now established benchmark areas of the low, as I have defined earlier, and if I am right about my projections on this, then King Ralph, king of the bears(who issued a bear market sell signal this week at DJIA 8487), is going to be eating crow down the road." During the course of Saturday's colorful and crucial broadcast, Brinker reminded us that he thought the market would be testing the benchmark lows established this past week. To wit, "Once we get through any residual testing of the benchmark lows, I would say that we are going to new highs in the months ahead following that, and I would expect that means the Dow(DJIA) is going to go above 9500, and that the S&P 500 is going well above 1200, and the Nasdaq is going above its old high of 2014, as well.... From my point of view, I think we are in really good shape. One of the things I like about this short term correction is that it was so badly needed.... The Nervous Nellies have to be shaken out. The people who don't even know what they own, they buy stocks because they are guaranteed 30 per cent a year, or so they think, the new era thinkers, the new paradigmers-- these people had to be shaken out. It's like shaking a tree and watching the rotten apples fall out." Brinker then opined that the market would likely undergo "some testing (of the recent lows) during the month of August" rather than fashion a "V-shaped" snapback.