Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fred Fahmy who wrote (62162)	8/9/1998 1:53:00 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Fred, RE:"BTW, what's the deal with 1987? People who were buying and holding for decades before the 80's have outperformed bonds, fixed income, and just about all other primary investment vehicles. Buying and holding quality equities has not just been working great since 1987 as you imply." Actually history does not bare you out. Had you bought just prior to the 1929 high in the DOW it would have taken until 1954 before you got even again based on the DOW. That's 25 years. 25 years! In 25 years I'm not going to care a whole lot. The scary thing is that the charts look very similar leading up to the '29 crash as they do now. I used '87 as a good reference point because I didn't know how familiar you were with the history of the markets. IMHO, this bull run actually started at 8/11/82 at 772 on the DOW. Some will argue however that it started on 12/9/74 at 570 on the DOW after one of the worst bear markets in history between 1973-74 where the DOW lost 46.5% of it's value from the 1/11/73 high of 1067. Talk about a slow grind down. Had you bought at that high it would have taken until 11/3/82 until you eclipsed that level. Nearly 10 years! So there you have it, a 25 year period where you had to buy and hold and hold and hold and another 10 year period. That's 35 years out of the last 70, half a lifetime. And I didn't even mention other bear markets. So buy and hold hasn't always worked as your post suggested. Regards, Jim