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Biotech / Medical : IGEN International -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Perry who wrote (404)	8/17/1998 12:06:00 PM
From: Renee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1025

James, sorry for the delayed response but I was on vacation last week. This turned out to be good timing as I'm sure I would not have enjoyed watching the activity in our favorite stock. As far as Igen dipping below 20 I doubt that it would occurr but unfortunately I can't rule it out either. The mood overhanging the entire market seems to be completely devoid of enthusiasm for any sector. If the market drifts lower Igen will drift with it. If a correction occurrs say from a Chinese devaluation then Igen will take a hit also. Igen is a story stock which is making the transition to a company that delivers on its potential. We are almost there. Unfortunately this Roche disagreement has muddied the waters and we no longer get accurate information on machine placements or reagent sales which would reassure investors that Igen is making progress. What gets this stock moving again? I don't have an answer to that question. I see the following news items in the near term: 1) End of August-Sam's trip to Switz. Maybe a small pop up but I doubt it. From Roche's perspective I see them delaying this as long as possible. Sam will settle for nothing less than full value for the license. He will estimate the number of machines that will ultimately be placed and factor in the revenue per machine and then discount that back to the present. So the only thing Roche saves by settling early is the discount factor. Roche gains by removing the uncertainty of market reception for the elecsys system. The only risk is losing access to the POC contract. 2) Early October-Results from CDC regarding the ecoli assay. 3) Mid November-Delivery of preproduction HTS machines. This in my opinion will move the stock because approximately 3 million in deferred revenue would be recognized and recurring reagent sales would begin. 4) The wild card in all of this is the POC contract which could come at any time and most certainly is being used as leverage in the Roche negotiations. Sometimes great stocks sell for very cheap prices. The only thing to do is try to maximize your financial reward and accumulate what you forsee as undervalued. Igen continues to make progress and as long as that continues I will hold and perhaps accumulate more. Igen has a great risk reward ratio and these are stocks that I like to find.