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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (6568)	8/9/1998 8:33:00 PM
From: Stitch	Respond to of 10921

Joseph; <<I remember Cohen hyping and hyping CPQ when it was at its 52 week high last year and then the stocks began its descent....At the very least it goes to show that no one is infallable...>> Right or wrong on individual issues is one thing...predicting aggregate market moves is quite another. It's a far more momentous decision that we make when deciding whether to take a defensive or aggressive posture. As Ramsey pointed out, it is the future we must focus on (though history can be helpful in that regard). For my own decision I have been taking a primarily defensive posture with approximately 74% in cash and bonds. But the remainder has been used for fairly speculative, short term forays into the market because I have been convinced that the so-called quality stocks have been over valued for some time now. In addition my frequency of trading has been accelerated...sort of a guerilla game compared to previous years in the market. While this occupies a good deal more time in homework it has been rewarding in the main with some very fortunate calls. I only own one stock that I have not traded in the last 12 months. But I have traded 8 other stocks over that same period. I expect to be nearly 95% cash by mid September. Then I expect to keep my powder dry for at least a few months. I hope that my return to equities will be early next year and will be aimed at Semi-conductor, telecom, and DD stocks. Of course JMHO and if I had a perfect record I would be a gazillionaire and I am not. :) Best, Stitch

To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (6568)	8/10/1998 4:33:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Abby Joseph Cohen has been under tremendous pressure not to de-rail the bull for several months now... she is certainly fallible... she seems to ignore disproportionate Asian effect on certain sectors, esp important sectors that oftentimes lead market out of slumpy times... like tech sector when Cohen issues an unequivocal negative opinion on the bull, she is all too aware of the huge market reaction... BusWk feature article in May issue reported that she might indeed be gunshy in changing her view of the bull... she may be married to the bull hey Ian, iif the past was a great teacher in economic history, how would anyone have expected the fall of the Iron Curtain? the unleashing of one billion people from the "second world" of communism into the world's competitive economies? the US Depression itself? ... my point is simple -- ASIA IS A BLACKHOLE ... we may not have seen this before... a good student of economic history might at least search for US Depression 1929 effect upon Europe... it was big and bad... no examples in history for developing nation depression upon developed stronger nation's economy if you think the Asian economic problems are no different from previous challenges, take a hard look after the disintegration of Indonesia, the class civil war in SKorea, the next Tianamen riots by Chinese unemployed ...... all coming to CNN for you they will have a profound effect on the US economy after it slows down on its own, from lack of qualified skilled workers, lack of need for a third refrigerator, lack of desire for another lakeside cottage, lack of desire for replacing that 166mhz PC, lack of profits by firms to invest heavily in R&D, and lastly diverted budgets to handle y2k still pissed off and resorting to mooning the Mass Pike traffic / Jim Willie